BC Climbs in Updated SP+ and Returning Production Rankings

He released his preseason projections in February, but there have been some changes. Connelly has accounted for stray “super seniors” who decided to return as well as late transfers.

He also tweaked the returning production metric, giving it less weight for teams that played only a few games last season. For teams like Boston College, however, that suited up for 10 or more games, returning production serves its normal role in the projection formula—two-thirds of which is usually made up of last year’s SP+ rankings and a team’s returning production for the upcoming season.

BC bumped up from 62nd to 60th in SP+ and from 47th to 43rd in returning production. The Eagles’ SP+ rating increased from 2.9 to 4.6, and their returning production slingshotted from 75% overall to 81%. BC is bringing back 92% of its offensive output from 2020, good for 11th nationally, and 71% of its defensive production from last season, which is 90th among FBS programs.

BC’s SP+ rating is significantly higher than its mark (-1.0) at the end of last year. As was the case with Connelly’s February rankings, this is the highest the Eagles have placed in returning production and been projected to finish in SP+ since 2018 when BC started the year 7-2 and hosted “College GameDay.”

If you’re still unfamiliar with Connelly’s system, here’s a breakdown of SP+ model.

Connelly defines SP+ as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He came up with the predictive model at Football Outsiders in 2008 and has been making small enhancements to it as the years have gone on. Unlike the AP or Coaches Poll, which recognize programs’ in-season résumés reflective of strength of schedule and big wins, the SP+ system is a forward-facing and weighted evaluation that tracks, in Connelly’s words, the “most sustainable and predictable aspects of football,” using play-by-play and drive data.

Connelly employs five factors to determine SP+ ratings: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. SP+ is presented in the adjusted points per game format, which indicates how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team in the current season. Within an overall SP+ rating lies offensive and defensive SP+ ratings. Those are displayed in adjusted scoring averages (points per game).

BC’s updated SP+ offensive and defensive ratings are 36.0 (25th nationally) and 31.3 (103rd), respectively. In terms of overall SP+, the ACC is led by Clemson (second nationally), Miami (eighth), North Carolina (11th) and Virginia Tech (33rd).

As far as returning production, specifically, is concerned, Connelly’s rankings are weighted evaluations of how much production a team is returning on both sides of the ball. It factors in predictive personnel stats, such as percentage of quarterback passing yards returning and percentage of passes defended returning. Connelly believes it to be a more analytical and accurate measure of experience than a returning starter total (for Connelly’s full explanation, click here).

From 2014 to 2020, the average FBS team posted a returning production percentage of 62.6%, according to Connelly. That said, because of the COVID-19 blanket waiver, all but 16 teams are at or above the 63% threshold. The only program not returning at least half of its production from last year is Northwestern (39%). Ultra-experienced rosters could make for some conference chaos and, potentially, greater parity across the sport.

Connelly listed the average SP+ rating by conference:

1. Big Ten: 12.2

2. SEC: 12.1

3. Big 12: 10.1

4. Pac-12: 10.0

5. ACC: 8.3

6. AAC: 2.5

7. Sun Belt: -1.4

8. Mountain West: -3.2

9. MAC: -5.8

10. Conference USA: -8.5

And the average returning production percentage by conference:

1. MAC: 83%

2. Mountain West: 82%

3. Sun Belt: 81.6%

4. Pac-12: 79.5%

5. Conference USA: 76.6%

6. ACC: 75.1%

7. Big Ten: 75.1%

8. AAC: 74.6%

9. Big 12: 73.2%

10. SEC: 68.1%