The future is bright for Boston College football, especially after Jeff Hafley and his staff locked up the best Eagles recruiting class since 2004.

But BC won’t necessarily have to wait to contend. Not with a favorable 2021 schedule and all the players the Eagles have coming back.

ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his annual returning production rankings Monday, and BC placed 47th nationally. It’s the highest the program has ranked in Connelly’s metric since 2018 when the Eagles clocked in at 31st nationally ahead of BC’s 7-2 start and return to the AP Poll.

Factoring in predictive personnel stats, such as percentage of quarterback passing yards returning and percentage of passes defended returning, Connelly’s rankings are weighted evaluations of how much production a team is returning on both sides of the ball. It’s a more analytical and accurate measure of experience than, say, the number of returning starters (for Connelly’s full explanation, click here).

For those curious, though, BC is returning 10 offensive starters and seven defensive starters (as well as three others on defense who started at least two games).

Connelly’s model has the Eagles returning 75% of their overall 2020 production, the seventh-highest mark of any ACC team. Here’s how the conference shakes out:

Note: Respective national rankings are in parentheses.

1. Miami: 91% overall (3rd)

● Breakdown: 95% offense (1st), 86% defense (12th)

2. Georgia Tech: 83% overall (13th)

● Breakdown: 84% offense (21st), 82% defense (23rd)

3. Wake Forest: 81% overall (18th)

● Breakdown: 88% offense (8th), 74% defense (54th)

4. Syracuse: 80% overall (26th)

● Breakdown: 83% offense (26th), 76% defense (45th)

5. North Carolina: 79% overall (32nd)

● Breakdown: 77% offense (47th), 81% defense (28th)

6. North Carolina State: 76% overall (44th)

● Breakdown: 63% offense (83rd), 90% defense (6th)

7. BC: 75% overall (47th)

● Breakdown: 84% offense (22nd), 66% defense (79th)

8. Pittsburgh: 73% overall (50th)

● Breakdown: 82% offense (28th), 64% defense (86th)

9. Florida State: 73% overall (53rd)

● Breakdown: 84% offense (25th), 62% defense (90th)

10. Clemson: 69% overall (65th)

● Breakdown: 46% offense (118th), 92% defense (3rd)

11. Virginia Tech: 68% overall (72nd)

● Breakdown: 69% offense (71st), 67% defense (76th)

12. Virginia: 66% overall (77th)

● Breakdown: 72% offense (63rd), 61% defense (95th)

13. Louisville: 61% overall (93rd)

● Breakdown: 73% offense (61st), 50% defense (114th)

14. Duke: 56% overall (104th):

● Breakdown: 51% offense (110th), 62% defense (92nd)

As was the case in 2018, BC’s returning more production on the offensive side of the ball. The Eagles are bringing back 84% of their offensive output, good for 22nd in the country and fourth in the ACC.

In Connelly’s 2020 returning production rankings, he noted that, over the previous six seasons, offenses with returning production north of 60% saw an average uptick of about two adjusted points per game.

If you’re unfamiliar with Connelly’s advanced analytics, adjusted points per game is the figure in which SP+ ratings are presented—essentially, it’s a data-driven reflection of how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team.

Now, let’s get back to it. Connelly also pointed out that nine of 18 teams in that span who brought back at least 90% of their offensive production improved by seven or more adjusted points per game.

At 84%, BC could realistically fall somewhere in between that two and seven-point adjusted points per game increase. It helps that quarterback Phil Jurkovec and Co. will be in the second year of offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti Jr.’s pro-style scheme.

The Eagles finished 2020 79th in SP+ with a -1.0 overall rating, largely because their defense—albeit vastly improved—still wasn’t good, at least according to Connelly’s analytics.

In fact, BC’s defensive SP+ significantly weighed down the team’s overall rating. The Eagles rounded out the year 98th in that department (as opposed to 48th in offensive SP+ and 28th in special teams SP+). It’s important to note, though, that in that same 2020 returning production piece, Connelly revealed that, in the aforementioned six-season window, teams bringing back at least 85% of defensive production improved by an average of five adjusted points per game. At 66%, BC is far below that bar, however, Tem Lukabu’s unit will likely contribute to a higher SP+ rating in 2021 if the defense makes another jump next fall.

Experience will be on the Eagles’ side. Both on offense and defense.

Just three years ago, BC found itself in a similar position. And after 10 weeks of the 2018 season, the Eagles, who brought back 81% of their production from the previous year, ranked 38th in SP+. BC’s rating of 8.0 was 3.4 adjusted points per game higher than it was at the conclusion of 2017.

Except everything was downhill from there, starting with a underwhelming College GameDay loss to then-No. 2 Clemson and ending with a lightning-induced bowl cancellation.

The Eagles could very well get off to another hot start this year. It’ll be up to Hafley and his staff to help them finish.