Last week, we looked at ESPN writer Bill Connelly’s returning production rankings, where Boston College—which is returning 10 offensive and seven defensive starters—stacked up against the rest of the country, and what that means for the Eagles.
Returning production is one of three primary factors Connelly uses to create his annual SP+ projections. The other two are recent history (including last year’s SP+ ratings) and recruiting.
He released those projections on Tuesday, and BC clocked in 17 spots higher than it finished last season. The Eagles come in at 62nd nationally with a SP+ rating of 2.9, the fourth-lowest in the ACC but a significant improvement from last year’s mark of -1.0.
Connelly defines SP+ as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He came up with the predictive model at Football Outsiders in 2008 and has been making small enhancements to it as the years have gone on. Unlike the AP or Coaches Poll, which recognize programs’ in-season résumés reflective of strength of schedule and big wins, the SP+ system is a forward-facing and weighted evaluation that tracks, in Connelly’s words, the “most sustainable and predictable aspects of football,” using play-by-play and drive data.
Connelly employs five factors to determine SP+ ratings: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. SP+ is presented in the adjusted points per game format, which indicates how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team in the current season. Within an overall SP+ rating lies offensive and defensive SP+ ratings. Those are displayed in adjusted scoring averages (points per game).
Now, here’s where BC comes in. The Eagles rank 62nd nationally in Connelly’s 2021 projections. This is the highest the Eagles have been projected to finish an upcoming season in SP+ since 2018. It’s not a coincidence that this is also the highest BC has placed in returning production (47th nationally) since 2018. As mentioned above, the two go hand-in-hand.
As far as offensive and defensive SP+ ratings are concerned, BC’s projections for 2021 are higher than the program’s final rankings from this past season. The Eagles’ offensive SP+ projection is 34.4 adjusted points per game (37th nationally; finished 48th in 2020), while their defensive SP+ projection is 31.5 adjusted points per game allowed (95th; finished 98th in 2020).
Interestingly enough, the ACC bottoms out the Power Five with the lowest average overall projection rating this year. Connelly points to the Pac-12’s “ridiculously high” returning production averages when explaining its 11.3 average SP+ overall projection rating (second best in the Power Five). Here’s how the ACC fares in terms of SP+ ratings:
Note: Respective national rankings are in parentheses.
1. Clemson 28.6 overall (2nd)
● Breakdown: 40.9 offense (9th), 12.2 defense (3rd)
2. Miami: 22.7 overall (8th)
● Breakdown: 40.5 (11th), 17.8 (13th)
3. North Carolina: 21.7 (10th)
● Breakdown: 44.8 offense (3rd), 23.1 defense (43rd)
4. Virginia Tech: 11.0 overall (36th)
● Breakdown: 36.2 offense (27th), 25.2 defense (57th)
5. Pittsburgh: 8.3 overall (43rd)
● Breakdown: 29.2 offense (65th), 21.0 defense (36th)
6. North Carolina State: 8.1 overall (45th)
● Breakdown: 29.0 offense (68th), 21.0 defense (37th)
7. Louisville: 7.6 overall (47th)
● Breakdown: 38.9 offense (16th), 31.3 defense (93rd)
8. Georgia Tech: 6.3 overall (48th)
● Breakdown: 29.8 offense (61st), 23.5 defense (47th)
9. Virginia: 4.9 overall (56th)
● Breakdown: 31.6 offense (47th), 26.7 defense (62nd)
10. Florida State: 4.4 overall (61st)
● Breakdown: 32.8 offense (41st), 28.5 defense (70th)
11. BC: 2.9 overall (62nd)
● Breakdown: 34.4 offense (37th), 31.5 defense (95th)
12. Wake Forest: 2.5 overall (64th)
● Breakdown: 30.7 offense (56th), 28.2 defense (69th)
13. Syracuse: -7.0 overall (95th)
● Breakdown: 21.7 offense (99th), 28.7 defense (73rd)
14. Duke: -9.3 overall (102nd):
● Breakdown: 19.3 offense (113th), 28.6 defense (71st)
Last year, BC was projected to round out the year 71st in SP+ (-2.2 rating). The season before that 72nd (0.7), and in 2018 an eye-catching 48th (4.0). When all was said and done, the Eagles actually closed those campaigns 79th (-1.0), 92nd (-5.7), and 63rd (2.4), respectively. So, on first glance, it appears as if BC has underperformed from its SP+ projections each of the past three years.
That said, it’s important to note that in 2018, when the Eagles returned 81% of their 2017 production, they climbed all the way up to 38th nationally in SP+ after their 7-2 start with a rating of 8.0, 3.4 points higher than their 4.6 mark from the previous season. Of course, that year ended in a three-game losing streak and a lightning-induced bowl cancellation, starving the Eagles of their first eight-win season since 2009—a drought that’s still ongoing.
Here is an overall SP+ rating-focused outlook of the Eagles’ 2021 weekly schedule:
Note: Respective national rankings are in parentheses.
Sept. 4 vs. Colgate: N/A
Sept. 11 @ UMass: -24.9 (129th)
Sept. 18 @ Temple: -15.9 (119th)
Sept. 25 vs. Missouri: 4.7 (58th)
Oct. 2 @ Clemson: 28.6 (2nd)
Oct. 16 vs. N.C. State: 8.1 (45th)
Oct. 23 @ Louisville: 7.6 (47th)
Oct. 30 @ Syracuse: -7.0 (95th)
Nov. 5 vs. Virginia Tech: 11.0 (36th)
Nov. 13 @ GT: 6.3 (48th)
Nov. 20 vs. FSU: 4.4 (61st)
Nov. 27 vs. Wake Forest: 2.5 (64th)
