2022 Opponent Preview Series: Get to Know Wake Forest
Wake Forest, the smallest school in the Power Five, had one of its biggest seasons to date in 2021. The Demon Deacons cracked the AP Top 10 for the first time in program history and reached the ACC Championship for the first time since 2006.
Everything clicked—offensively, at least—in the eighth season of head coach Dave Clawson's tenure. Wake started the year 8-0 but alternated wins and losses the rest of the way, finishing 11-3 with a 38-10 win over Rutgers, which was replacing Texas A&M, in the Gator Bowl.
The Deacons lost the ACC title game to Pittsburgh, as they gave up at least 40 points for the fifth time in the span of seven games. Wake was carried last season by a juggernaut offense, spearheaded by quarterback Sam Hartman and wide receivers AT Perry and Jaquarii Roberson.
Roberson is in the NFL now, and Hartman is out indefinitely with a non-football-related medical condition, but Wake still has a bunch of talent, hence its No. 22 ranking in the AP Preseason Poll.
WHEN IS BC PLAYING WAKE FOREST?
Saturday, Oct. 22, TBA
WHERE IS BC PLAYING WAKE FOREST?
Truist Field, Winston-Salem, North Carolina
SERIES HISTORY
Road field advantage? It's kind of a thing in this series. The road team has won each of the last seven meetings. Overall, BC holds a 14-12-2 lead over the Deacons. But Wake has won two straight, dating back to 2019 (the teams didn't play during the COVID-19-affected 2020 campaign). Last year, the Deacons blew out the Eagles, 41-10. It was the largest margin of victory for Wake in the series. The odds were stacked against BC, though. In the week leading up to the regular season finale, the injury-riddled Eagles had 32 players contract the flu, including quarterback Phil Jurkovec. BC entered intermission trailing, 24-10. Its best chance to get back in the game was when star wideout Zay Flowers reversed for a highlight-reel, 73-yard touchdown at the start of the second quarter. Unfortunately for the Eagles, the touchdown was nullified because of a bad blind side block call on Jurkovec.
Generally, however, these have been close games. Five of the last seven have been decided by one score.
BREAKING DOWN THE 2022 DEMON DEACONS
Wake Forest's 2021 Record: 11-3 (7-1 ACC), 1st in Atlantic Division
Offense: How many games Hartman misses could very well dictate Wake's win total in 2022, and, subsequently, if the Deacons can challenge Atlantic Division frontrunners Clemson and North Carolina State. Hartman, who has thrown for 9,266 yards in his career (193rd in FBS history), was spectacular last season. He accounted for 50 total touchdowns (39 passing, 11 rushing) and posted the most 30-plus-yard completions (24) by a Power Five quarterback since Penn State's Trace McSorley in 2016 (25).
Clawson said he expects Hartman to return at some point this season. Right now, however, redshirt freshman Mitch Griffis is QB1. Griffis appeared in four games last season but attempted only two passes. He was a three-star dual-threat quarterback who also had offers from North Carolina, Maryland and Louisville. Luckily for Griffis, he'll have a reliable target in Perry. The future NFLer was third and second in the ACC in receiving yards (1,293) and receiving touchdowns (15), respectively, last year. Plus, Wake still has Taylor Morin and Ke'Shawn Williams, who teamed up for 70 catches, eight receiving touchdowns and more than 1,000 receiving yards in 2021.
The Deacons' slow-mesh offense, which ranked 11th nationally in total yards per game last year, is anchored by an O-Line that returns four starters. It's a group headlined by guard Sean Maginn and center Michael Jurgens. Wake had a committee approach at running back in 2021, and that's likely its course of action for this year, too. While Christian Beal-Smith hit the portal this offseason, the Deacons still have Christian Turner and Justice Ellison, who combined for 12 scores and north of 1,000 yards on the ground. Also, Ellison led all Wake backs with 5.1 yards per carry in 2021.
Defense: Yeah, this is the side of the ball that comes with plenty of concerns. Wake had to win quite a few shootouts last year. Without Hartman for the start of this season, the Deacons probably can't afford to give up nearly as many points as they did in 2021—their 70-56 win over Army is hilarious to think about. Only five teams in the country gave up more first downs than Wake last year. The Deacons finished 2021 ranked 91st in total defense, allowing 413.4 yards per game. Notably, they were 12th in the ACC in rushing defense, a department where they conceded 195.6 yards per contest.
What kept Wake afloat—other than a video game offense—was a decent pass rush and a knack for forcing turnovers. The Deacons registered the 61st-best Pro Football Focus pass rush grade (76.4) last year while totaling 38 sacks, the third most in the ACC. They bring back two of their top-three sack leaders: defensive linemen Rondell Bothroyd and Jasheen Davis. Those two also piled up a combined 25 TFLs last season.
As for the forced turnovers, 11 different Deacons intercepted a pass in 2021. Wake was tied for fifth nationally in takeaways (29) last season. The secondary has experienced significant turnover, though. Cornerback Gavin Holmes (17 solo tackles, 4 PD, 1 INT) and safety Nick Anderson (31 solo tackles, 3 PD, 1 INT) make up the new foundation of the backend. Wake should be fine at linebacker. Ryan Smenda will likely take Luke Masterson's spot as the team's leading tackler, and Georgia Southern transfer Eldrick Robinson is joining the Deacons' second level after a 74-tackle 2021 campaign.
Special Teams: Nick Sciba's illustrious college career is over. Sciba is now with the Pittsburgh Steelers after making 23-of-25 field goals as an All-ACC first teamer in 2021. Sciba holds the NCAA record for consecutive field goals made (34) and career field goal percentage (89.9%). The two-time Lou Groza Award semifinalist was the definition of consistency for the Deacons. It looks like redshirt freshman Matthew Dennis will have the tall task of filling Sciba's shoes. Punter Ivan Mora, who suffered a leg injury during the Gator Bowl, should be ready for the opener. Mora averaged 43.9 yards per punt, good for seventh in the ACC, last year. His 15 punts inside opponents' 20-yard line was 11th in the conference. Morin excelled as the Deacons' punt returner last year, averaging 10 yards per return.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
14 — fumbles gained by Wake last season, tied for the third most in the FBS.
4.9 — yards per carry the Deacons allowed in 2021, a mark that was 12th in the ACC.
49.8% — conversion percentage Wake posted on third down last season. Only five other FBS teams logged a higher clip.
ESPN FPI
The database gives Wake Forest a 78.9% chance of beating BC in Week 8.
OUTLOOK
The ACC is better when Hartman is on the field. Without him, it's hard to tell how competitive Wake will be at the start of this season. Griffis doesn't have experience and, although the Deacons have offensive playmakers, their defense isn't a unit that can pull weight in league play.
But Clawson usually finds a way to points on the board. Plus, he and his staff have proven the ability to develop quarterbacks. By the time BC and Wake face off, either Hartman will be back or Griffis will have made mid-season strides.
I think this matchup will be decided by one possession. Recent history favors the road team, in this case BC.