Opponent Preview: Ohio
There’s no mercy in college football, especially not in the ACC. Just look at Georgia Tech: 3-9 last season as the league’s bottom dweller, the Yellow Jackets return for 2020 with the toughest schedule in the conference, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).
Boston College doesn’t have it easy, either. With a new head coach, limited spring ball, and probably the weirdest offseason in the sport’s history, the Eagles are back on campus gearing up for a 12-game slate that includes the ACC’s divisional frontrunners, Clemson and North Carolina. As far as FPI is concerned, BC has the seventh hardest schedule in the conference. How will the Eagles fare? I’ll break down each of their 2020 opponents, one by one.
Ohio was the best team in the MAC in 2019, according to SP+. And if it wasn’t for a trio of three-point home losses, the Bobcats could be defending league champions for the first time since 1968. Instead, Ohio’s three-game win streak at the tail end of last year’s campaign—one in which the Bobcats outscored their opponents, 148-48—culminated in a 30-21 victory over Nevada in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.
Ohio’s underwhelming 7-6 record was hardly a reflection of the team’s talent. Miami (Ohio) ended up winning the MAC East, even though the RedHawks (102nd) were 52 spots lower in the national SP+ rankings than the second-place Bobcats (50th). It’s an outcome that’s all too familiar for Ohio head coach Frank Solich.
During Solich’s 14-year tenure in Athens, the Bobcats have won five bowls, appeared in six more, and finished just two seasons—neither of which occurred in the past decade—with a losing record. In terms of SP+, Ohio was also the best team in the MAC in 2018, the second-best in 2017, and the third-best in 2016. To put that in perspective, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, in the past 10 FBS seasons, 56% of outright conference champions ranked first in their respective leagues in SP+ (and the second-best team, per SP+, won the title 20% of the time).
Somehow, though, after four MAC title game appearances, Solich is still searching for his first championship. The Bobcats once again have the skill set to do it—meaning that their Week 2 matchup with BC is no gimmee for the Eagles. BC, which hasn’t played a MAC opponent since 2017 (when it played both Northern Illinois and Central Michigan), could be in for quite a test.
When is BC playing?
Saturday, Sept. 12, TBA
Where is BC playing?
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.
Series History: BC and Ohio have only met on the gridiron once. You have to go back to 1966, when Jim Miller was the head coach of the Eagles, and Bill Hess was holding the clipboard on the Bobcat sideline. Ohio defeated BC, 23-14, marking the first of the Eagles’ two multi-game losing streaks that season. Interestingly enough, that matchup also came in Week 2. BC finished the 1966 campaign 4-6, averaging just 13.3 points per game, while Hess and Ohio rounded out the year .500—a disappointing outcome for a team that got off to an encouraging 4-1 start.
Ohio’s 2019 Record: 7-6 (5-3), 2nd MAC East
Breaking down the Bobcats
Offense: While the Bobcats certainly have enough firepower to contend for a conference title, there is a big question mark surrounding the quarterback position. Nathan Rourke, the program’s all-time touchdown leader, is gearing up for his first season in the CFL. The Ontario, Canada native racked up 111 touchdowns—49 of which were on the ground—and 10,901 total yards during his illustrious Ohio career, en route to becoming the highest-selected quarterback in the CFL Draft since 2001 (was picked 15th overall by the BC Lions).
Last season, Rourke completed 61% of his passes while averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and throwing 20 touchdowns to just five interceptions. Meanwhile, he rushed for 867 yards and 13 scores. Heck, he even caught a touchdown pass at the goal line. Point being, whoever replaces Rourke will have some gargantuan shoes to fill. Solich has a few options. If you’re looking for experience, Drew Keszei and K.J. Minter could be the way to go. Both are redshirt juniors who have spent time at wide receiver since joining the Bobcats yet starred as dual-threat quarterbacks in high school. There’s a chance Rourke ends up behind center again—not Nathan, but his brother Kurtis: a 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman who was a two-time MVP at Holy Trinity High School in Ontario. True freshman CJ Harris is in the mix as well.
Luckily for Ohio, pretty much every other proven skill player is coming back. First and foremost, the Bobcats still have their top-two running backs, O’Shaan Allison and De’Montre Tuggle. One productive tailback, let alone two, is a new quarterback’s best friend. Allison and Tuggle each recorded more than 100 carries, 11-plus receptions, and 765-plus yards from scrimmage last season. They both averaged at least 6.3 yards per rush and could enjoy similar success in 2020, considering that the Bobcats are returning three O-Linemen with starting experience. Additionally, Ohio will have its top-three receivers from 2019 at its disposal, including wideout Isiah Cox (39 receptions, 663 yards, two touchdowns) and tight end Ryan Luehrman (28 receptions, 360 yards, five touchdowns).
Defense: If Solich’s new quarterback can be half the dual-threat weapon Rourke was, a lot of weight will be lifted off the shoulders of defensive coordinator Ron Collins, who got the bump from the assistant role to being named the team’s sole DC last season. In 2019, the Bobcat defense inched in the right direction, but still left a ton to be desired. The unit jumped 10 spots in the defensive SP+ rankings (from 107th to 97th), but gave up an average of 26.5 points and 403.7 yards per game (60th and 76th, respectively). And take that total defense stat with a grain of salt. After all, Ohio’s regular season finale against a hapless Akron distorted the metric. The Bobcats conceded a mere 74 yards to the winless Zips in a 52-3 clobbering. Not to mention the fact that, in Ohio’s six losses, Collins’ defense allowed a much steeper 457.7 yards per game.
There’s reason to be optimistic, however, especially since the Bobcats rank 28th nationally in defensive returning production. Ohio is returning 78% of the unit’s output from 2019, namely defensive ends Will Evans and Austin Conrad and linebackers Jared Dorsa and Dylan Conner. Evans wreaked havoc in the backfield last season, leading the team with 7.5 TFLs. Conrad was destructive off the edge as well, logging 6.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage and a team-best 4.0 sacks. At the second level, Conner spearheaded the linebacking corps this past fall, notching 83 total tackles. Dorsa wasn’t too far behind (81 total tackles, 34 solos) and was pretty respectable in coverage—the 6-foot-2 linebacker broke up five passes.
The Bobcats were fine against the pass last year—nothing special, though. Ohio ranked 83rd, allowing 237.4 yards per game through the air. That said, Collins’ unit did round out the year 54th in passing success rate. And it was also pretty darn good on 3rd-and-long (Ohio ranked ninth in the country in 3&L success rate). It’s a veteran group on the backend. All but one of the top-six returning defensive backs in Ohio’s secondary are seniors. That should help. Another factor is takeaways—Ohio forced just 15 last year (tied 97th nationally). Significant improvement in that department could make an average/good Bobcats defense one of the better MAC units.
Special Teams: Ohio ranked 30th in special teams SP+ in 2019, but you should expect somewhat of a decline in that phase of the game this coming season. The Bobcats saw their place kicker and punter graduate in May, both of whom were four-year starters for Ohio. Back in 2016, Louie Zervos set an NCAA record for most field goals made by a freshman (a record that was eventually broken in 2018 by Syracuse’s Andre Szmyt) after knocking in 29-of-35 attempts, most notably a 51-yarder against Buffalo. The next three years, Zervos converted at least 76.5% of his field goals each season, while missing just three extra points in that span.
Likewise, punter Michael Farkas locked down his position from 2016 to 2019, averaging more than 40 yards per punt each year. This past season, though, five of his punts resulted in touchbacks, and the Bobcats ranked 97th in the country in net punting (37.02 yards per punt). Still, Ohio was solid on punt return defense, giving up just 6.13 yards per return (39th nationally). Farkas also served as the team’s kickoff man and averaged 54.8 yards per boot. All this to say that the Bobcats are going to have to replace two guys who have been the faces of Ohio’s special teams the last four years. It seems as if punter Jack Wilson (true freshman) and place kicker Tristian Vandenberg (redshirt freshman) are next in line.
Numbers to Know
6 — Rourke spread the ball at will in 2019. Under longtime offensive coordinator Tim Albin, six different Bobcats tallied at least 18 receptions last season. Time will tell if Ohio’s new quarterback will be just as sharing.
24 — Ohio didn’t always have the easiest time generating pressure last fall. The Bobcats registered 24.0 sacks this past season, good for 87th in the nation. That’s 1.85 per game—certainly better than BC fared in 2019 but still below average.
49.4 — The Bobcats ranked sixth in the country last year in 3rd Down conversion rate. The teams ahead of them? Oklahoma, LSU, Alabama, Air Force, and Ohio State. Ohio moved the chains on 49.4% of its 3rd Downs. Talk about efficiency.
ESPN FPI: The database gives BC a 74.4% chance of beating the Bobcats in Week 2.
Outlook: In 2017, BC squared off against a pair of MAC opponents: Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. The games resulted in the Eagles’ lone two wins amid their disastrous 2-4 start—one in which BC averaged a meager 16.3 points per game. This time around, a win is far from guaranteed. The 75-year-old Solich is going on year 15, whereas Hafley is a rookie head coach. An upset at Alumni Stadium could very well be in the cards. It’s the only game all season where Ohio is the projected underdog, per Connelly. A win for the Bobcats would give them a headstart on their fifth MAC East title under Solich. On the other hand, a BC victory would be a respectable non-conference achievement and a confidence boost for Hafley and his staff.