Opponent Preview: Syracuse

There’s no mercy in college football, especially not in the ACC. Just look at Georgia Tech: 3-9 last season as the league’s bottom dweller, the Yellow Jackets return for 2020 with the toughest schedule in the conference, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI).

Boston College doesn’t have it easy, either. With a new head coach, limited spring ball, and probably the weirdest offseason in the sport’s history, the Eagles are back on campus gearing up for a 12-game slate that includes the ACC’s divisional frontrunners, Clemson and North Carolina. As far as FPI is concerned, BC has the seventh hardest schedule in the conference. How will the Eagles fare? I’ll break down each of their 2020 opponents, one by one.

When oddsmakers released their projected ACC win totals for the 2019 season last summer, Syracuse—tabbed as a five-win team by FanDuel—appeared to be criminally underrated. At the time, CBS Sports’ Barrett Sallee even wrote that taking the over on the Orange was not only “the easiest bet in the ACC” but also “the easiest one in the entire country.” Similarly, ESPN and Athlon Sports projected Syracuse to build off its 10-win 2018 campaign—the program’s first such season in 17 years—with 10 and 9-win seasons, respectively.

Turns out the sportsbooks had it right all along. Highly-touted quarterback Tommy DeVito and the Orange offense didn’t click as expected, and two weeks into the season, Syracuse dropped off a cliff. After Dino Baber’s team suffered an embarrassing 60-23 loss at Maryland, the Orange didn’t sniff the AP Poll again. Syracuse did win two of its final ACC contests, most notably a 39-30 overtime thriller over a Wake Forest team that started the year 7-1, but the Orange missed out on a bowl for the fifth time in the past six years.

Syracuse’s trek back to the postseason will start in Alumni Stadium. For the Eagles, it could be a chance to kick off the Jeff Hafley era with a conference win.

When is BC playing?

Friday, Sept. 4, TBA

Where is BC playing?

Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

Series History: Syracuse leads the all-time series, 31-21, but the teams have alternated wins and losses in their previous four meetings. The last three have all been beatdowns, with the Eagles handing Babers and the Orange a pair of high-scoring blowout defeats in the Carrier Dome twice, and—in between—Syracuse closing the 2018 regular season with a 42-21 win at Alumni Stadium to spoil Senior Day for what was probably the most talented BC team in the past 10 years. These schools go way back. They clashed heads when BC was an independent, as well as when the program moved to the Big East. In fact, they played every year from 1971 to 2004 before resuming the series in 2010, three years prior to the Orange joining the ACC.

Syracuse’s 2019 Record: 5-7 (2-6), 6th ACC Atlantic

Breaking down the Orange

Offense: DeVito will once again have the keys to the Syracuse offense, only this time he’ll be without some of his favorite targets. Both Trishton Jackson and Sean Riley are gone. Jackson, a 6-foot-1 wideout with the ability to turn on the burners and get behind the defense downfield, burst onto the scene last year and led the Orange with 1,023 receiving yards, the sixth-most in the ACC. He skipped his senior year to enter the NFL Draft, yet ultimately ended up signing with the Los Angeles Chargers as an undrafted free agent. Riley, a slot receiver and dangerous kick returner during his illustrious four-year career at Syracuse, also signed as an UDFA but with the New England Patriots.

Moreover, Moe Neal’s production will need to be replaced in the backfield. Syracuse’s lead back each of the past two seasons, Neal averaged 5.0 yards per rush while catching 29 balls for an additional 242 yards. The Orange will most likely adopt a two-pronged rushing attack in 2020, using Jarveon Howard and Abdul Adams to take some weight off DeVito’s shoulders. Those two backs each had more than 75 rushing attempts, scored three touchdowns, and reeled in at least nine passes last year. In terms of Syracuse’s approach through the air, Taj Harris could be DeVito’s new best friend. With a 6-foot-2 frame, Harris (37 receptions, 559 yards, and two touchdowns in 2019) can go up and get it, but he’s primarily served as more of a big-play threat rather than a volume receiver in his first two years with the Orange. Tight ends Aaron Hackett and Luke Benson will probably see an uptick in action, too.

New offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert will be tasked with establishing a consistent scheme for a unit that scored 27 points or fewer in all but five of its games last year. DeVito will have a more experienced O-Line in year two, but time will tell if he can make a similar jump that his predecessor, Eric Dungey, made as a second-year starter.

Defense: It took a long time for Syracuse’s offense to find its footing in 2019. Its defense, on the other hand, never really got a handle on things. The Orange allowed 464.1 total yards per game, second-to-last in the ACC only to BC. Three different opponents, including BC, served Syracuse a 50 burger over the course of the Orange’s 12-game slate. And the two games that the Orange held Power Five opponents to 10 points or fewer came against N.C. State and Duke, both of which ranked in the bottom four of the ACC in scoring and total offense.

Injuries were a part of the problem. Safety Andre Cisco, the only true freshman Walter Camp All-American in 2018, missed three games with a lower-body injury. Likewise, cornerback Ifeatu Melifonwu was sidelined for three games. As ESPN’s Bill Connelly noted in his ACC Atlantic Division preview earlier this month, just five Syracuse defenders logged more than 600 snaps in 2019, as opposed to the 22 total Orange defensive players who tallied at least 100. Point being, that’s a lot of different lineup combos for one season. New defensive coordinator Tony White will surely be searching for more stability—roster-wise and performance-wise—in 2020.

He has a hard job ahead of him, particularly since Syracuse, like everyone else, didn’t get much of spring ball. Not only that, but the Orange lost seven starters on the defensive side of the ball and ranks 121st nationally in returning defensive production (42%). White is expected to roll out a 3-3-5 base formation. That calls into question what the linebacking corps will look like. Mikel Jones returns, but Tyrell Richards, Geoff Cantin-Arku, and Lee Kpogba are all additional candidates to start in the box. Up front, redshirt senior McKinley Williams appears to be in line for the starting nod at nose tackle, while Josh Black (39 tackles, 6.0 TFLs, and 4.0 sacks in 2019) and Kingsley Jonathan (24 tackles, 3.0 TFLs, 1.5 sacks in 2019) seem to be the replacements for Alton Robinson and Kendall Coleman on the edge.

Special Teams: Syracuse had one of the best kicker-punter tandems in the country last season. Punter Sterling Hofrichter, who was selected by the Atlanta Falcons in the seventh round of this year’s NFL Draft, booted 69 punts in 2019. Of those 69, only 10 were returned and just two resulted in touchbacks. In large part thanks to Hofrichter’s 43.03 yard net average—the third-best in the FBS—the Orange tied for fifth nationally in punt return defense (1.7 yards allowed per return).

Andre Szmyt continued to craft an NFL resume of his own. Szymt, who became the third-ever freshman to win the Lou Groza Award (the Heisman equivalent for placekickers) in 2018, hit 17-of-20 field goals and 39-of-40 extra points last season. The Vernon Hills, Ill. native was 11-of-11 inside 40 yards and made eight straight kicks to end the year, the last of which was a 40-yarder in overtime against Wake Forest. Syracuse gets Szymt back, but losing Hofrichter is a big blow. Still, special teams should remain a strong suit for the Orange.

Numbers to Know

50 — Syracuse allowed 50 sacks last season—in other words, 4.17 a game, the third-most in the country. The Orange lost both of its starting tackles following the 2018 season, and it showed this past fall. It also didn’t help that DeVito struggled to get the ball out quickly.

53 — What DeVito did particularly well, however, was throwing deep. During a Week 4 win over Western Michigan, the redshirt sophomore’s touchdown pass to Trishton Jackson at the start of the third quarter traveled 53 yards in the air, the furthest of any touchdown pass in 2019. DeVito was the only gunslinger last season that tossed multiple touchdown passes 50-plus yards downfield, per Pro Football Focus College.

691 — During last year’s matchup between BC and Syracuse, the Eagles racked up a school record 691 yards of total offense (previous program record: 656 total yards vs. Penn State in 1982). Over 70% of those yards came on the ground, as AJ Dillon and David Bailey ripped through the Orange defense. Bailey carried the ball 16 times for 172 yards and two scores.

ESPN FPI: The database gives BC a 75.7% chance of beating the Orange in Week 1.

Outlook: Because of COVID-19, BC’s Week 1 showdown against Syracuse won’t be the packed Friday night home opener students and alumni first imagined. It will, however, still be a good matchup for Hafley. Like him, Babers has dealt with the inconvenience of gelling together a new staff amid the pandemic, not to mention that Syracuse has had significantly more roster turnover than BC. In regard to preparation, there will be somewhat of an even playing field, and the Eagles’ experience on offense, especially in the trenches, could very well be the difference. For the second straight season, BC will open the year against an ACC rival. Remember, though, if last year’s outcome is any indication, a Week 1 conference victory isn’t all too predictive.