ESPN released its initial Football Power Index ratings for the 2021 season this week. As was the case with Bill Connelly’s SP+ ratings from February, the Eagles find themselves near the bottom of the ACC, clocking in at 11th in the conference.
It comes as a bit of a surprise considering BC is returning a total of 16 offensive and defensive starters after going 6-5 in Jeff Hafley’s first year as head coach.
FPI was developed in 2013 as a predictive model of team strength and performance. An FPI rating includes offensive, defensive and special teams components. More specifically, these preseason projections are dependent on data from previous seasons, factoring in returning starters, past results, recruiting rankings as well as coaching tenure.
Here’s how the ACC shakes out in terms of FPI:
1. Clemson (23.5 FPI, third nationally): 11.5-1.4 (Proj. W/L)
2. North Carolina (13.5 FPI, 13th nationally): 8.6-3.7 (Proj. W/L)
3. Miami (11.9 FPI, 20th nationally): 7.9-4.4 (Proj. W/L)
4. Virginia Tech (10.0 FPI, 28th nationally): 7.7-4.5 (Proj. W/L)
5. Virginia (8.8 FPI, 32nd nationally): 7.2-4.9 (Proj. W/L)
6. North Carolina State (8.1 FPI, 33rd nationally): 6.8-5.2 (Proj. W/L) 7. Wake Forest (7.5 FPI, 37th nationally): 7.3-4.7 (Proj. W/L) 8. Florida State (6.4 FPI, 41st nationally): 6.1-5.9 (Proj. W/L)
9. Louisville (6.3 FPI, 42nd nationally): 6.5-5.5 (Proj. W/L)
10. Pittsburgh (4.7 FPI, 51st nationally): 6.4-5.6 (Proj. W/L)
11. BC (4.4 FPI, 54th nationally): 6.7-5.3 (Proj. W/L) 12. Georgia Tech (3.8 FPI, 61st nationally): 5.1-6.9 (Proj. W/L) 13. Duke (-1.0 FPI, 74th nationally): 4.8-7.2 (Proj. W/L)
14. Syracuse (-2.7 FPI, 80th nationally): 4.2-7.9 (Proj. W/L)
By this metric, the Eagles rank second-to-last in the Atlantic Division, only ahead of Syracuse, which is coming off its worst season since 2005. It’s worth noting, though, that the Eagles’ projected win total is eighth in the league and fourth in the division.
BC is also projected to have a 79.0% chance of reaching the six-win mark, a 1.0% chance of winning the division and a 0.3% chance of winning the ACC.
According to FPI, the top-four conference title contenders are Clemson, UNC, Miami and Virginia Tech. The Tigers are projected to have a 72.1% chance of winning the ACC. UNC follows with a 10.0% chance, and then come Miami and Virginia Tech at 7.0% and 4.0%, respectively.
BC’s strength of schedule is middle-of-the-pack, as far as the ACC is concerned. The Eagles have the 44th-hardest schedule in the nation and eighth toughest in the conference. GT leads that category with the 18th-most rigorous slate in the country.
Here’s how the Eagles’ 2021 opponents stack up in FPI: Colgate: N/A (Note: FCS teams don’t have FPI projections right now)
UMass: (-28.4 FPI, 128th nationally): 2.4-9.6 (Proj. W/L)
Temple: (-13.0 FPI, 119th nationally): 3.5-8.5 (Proj. W/L)
Missouri: (7.9 FPI, 34th nationally): 7.1-5.0 (Proj. W/L)
Clemson: (23.5 FPI, third nationally): 11.5-1.4 (Proj. W/L)
N.C. State: (8.1 FPI, 33rd nationally): 6.8-5.2 (Proj. W/L) Louisville: (6.3 FPI, 42nd nationally): 6.5-5.5 (Proj. W/L)
Syracuse: (-2.7 FPI, 80th nationally): 4.2-7.9 (Proj. W/L) Virginia Tech: (10.0 FPI, 28th nationally): 7.7-4.5 (Proj. W/L)
GT: (3.8 FPI, 61st nationally): 5.1-6.9 (Proj. W/L)
FSU: (6.4 FPI, 41st nationally): 6.1-5.9 (Proj. W/L)
Wake Forest: (7.5 FPI, 37th nationally): 7.3-4.7 (Proj. W/L)
These FPI projections are far from all-telling. No projection deserves that kind of weight.
Last June, Eagle Action took a look at media outlet predictions for BC the previous few years and found that the program’s expected place in the ACC has often been dictated by its past mediocrity.
Even though ESPN’s predictive model is more significant—given the analytics behind it—it’s hardly a bullet-proof indication of BC’s fate in 2021.
Hafley’s bunch exceeded expectations last fall. The Eagles could do it again this time around.
