ESPN's Bill Connelly has released his final SP+ projections for the 2022 season, and Boston College clocks in a bit ahead of where it was in the spring.

The Eagles have risen from 76th to 70th nationally. They rank 100th in offensive SP+ (21.8 adjusted points per game) but 37th in defensive SP+ (21.5 adjusted points per game). Their projected win total sits at 5.5, with a projected conference win total of 3.0.

BC's defensive SP+ is perhaps more of a realistic projection, given how much returning production factors into Connelly's metric. In other words, BC starting quarterback Phil Jurkovec's absence last year makes the Eagles' offensive returning production (49%, which is 114th nationally) deceivingly low. Yes, BC has a completely new offensive line, but the Eagles are the only program in the ACC this season to bring back a quarterback with 3,000-plus career passing yards, a running back with 1,000-plus career rushing yards and a wide receiver with 1,000-plus receiving yards.

If these terms are new for you, don't worry. Here's a refresher.

Returning production is one of three primary factors Connelly uses to create his annual SP+ projections. The other two are recent history (including last year’s SP+ ratings) and recent recruiting (which now includes incoming transfers).

Connelly defines SP+ as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He came up with the predictive model at Football Outsiders in 2008 and has been making small enhancements to it as the years have gone on, including a tweak this offseason. Unlike the AP or Coaches Poll, which recognize programs’ in-season resumes reflective of strength of schedule and big wins, the SP+ system is a forward-facing and weighted evaluation that tracks, in Connelly’s words, the “most sustainable and predictable aspects of football,” using play-by-play and drive data.

During the season, Connelly employs five factors to determine SP+ ratings: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. SP+ is presented in the adjusted points per game format, which indicates how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team in the current season. Within an overall SP+ rating lies offensive and defensive SP+ ratings. Those are displayed in adjusted scoring averages (points per game).

​​Factoring in predictive personnel stats, such as percentage of quarterback passing yards returning and percentage of passes defended returning, Connelly’s rankings are weighted evaluations of how much production a team is returning on both sides of the ball. It’s a more analytical and accurate measure of experience than, say, the number of returning starters (for Connelly’s full explanation, click here).

But, for those curious, BC returns five starters on offense and eight starters on defense. Last year, the Eagles brought back nine offensive starters and seven defensive starters.

Connelly’s model has BC returning 59% of its overall 2021 production, the third-lowest mark of any ACC team (only ahead of Georgia Tech and Duke). More specifically, BC returns 49% of its offensive output from last year (114th nationally) and 69% of its defensive production (48th).

The Eagles’ offensive SP+ projection is 21.8 adjusted points per game (100th nationally; finished 84th in 2021), while their defensive SP+ projection is 21.5 adjusted points per game (37th nationally; finished 63rd in 2021). That gives BC an overall SP+ rating of 0.3.

Here’s how the ACC shakes out.

Note: Figures represented are adjusted points per game, followed by the respective national ranking in parentheses.

1. Clemson 21.4 overall (5th)

● Breakdown: 32.4 offense (39th), 10.9 defense (1st)

2. North Carolina State 15.4 overall (18th)

● Breakdown: 32.7 offense (35th), 17.3 defense (13th)

3. Pittsburgh 14.4 overall (23rd)

● Breakdown: 39.2 offense (7th), 24.9 defense (55th)

4. Miami 13.2 overall (29th)

● Breakdown: 36.2 offense (17th), 22.9 defense (41st)

5. North Carolina 9.4 overall (38th)

● Breakdown: 36.4 offense (14th), 27.1 defense (69th)

6. Louisville 9.3 overall (39th)

● Breakdown: 33.3 offense (32nd), 24.0 defense (50th)

7. Florida State 8.4 overall (42nd)

● Breakdown: 30.3 offense (47th), 21.8 defense (39th)

8. Wake Forest 7.0 overall (47th)

● Breakdown: 38.0 offense (10th), 31.0 defense (93rd)

9. Virginia Tech 2.6 overall (61st)

● Breakdown: 23.4 offense (90th), 20.7 defense (31st)

10. Syracuse 1.8 overall (64th)

● Breakdown: 26.1 offense (77th), 24.4 (53rd)

11. Virginia 1.7 overall (65th)

● Breakdown: 34.7 offense (26th), 32.9 defense (105th)

12. BC 0.3 overall (70th)

● Breakdown: 21.8 offense (100th), 21.5 defense (37th)

13. Georgia Tech -5.5 overall (87th)

● Breakdown: 26.9 offense (74th), 32.4 defense (100th)

14. Duke -16.0 overall (119th)

● Breakdown: 22.5 offense (95th), 38.5 defense (123rd)

As far as conferences and SP+ go, the ACC has the fourth-best average rating (6.0), the third-best average offensive rating (31.0), the fifth-best average defensive rating (25.0) and the third-best average returning production percentage (65.5%).

The Eagles initially came in at 62nd in last year's SP+ projections, their highest projection in Connelly's metric since 2018—the last time BC was ranked.

That projection was significantly influenced by BC’s returning production (47th nationally), also BC’s highest since 2018. But everything was turned upside down by the season-threatening fracture to Jurkovec's throwing hand that cost him six games.

BC ended up finishing the 2021 season 75th in SP+.

This metric won't be kind to BC until its recent history isn't a string of six- or seven-win seasons. And, in this case, the returning production percentage makes the Eagles' offense look like it's in worse shape than it actually is.

One important takeaway, though, is just how much SP+ likes BC's defense, which is well above the ACC's defensive SP+ rating average. With elite play on that side of the ball, the Eagles really just have to be respectable on offense.

If Jurkovec can stay upright and play like the NFL prospect he is believed to be, that shouldn't be a problem.