Expectations were sky high for Boston College last season. The Eagles were supposed to be an ACC dark horse. And while that didn’t necessarily show in ESPN staff writer Bill Connelly’s SP+ preseason ratings last February, the Eagles did clock in 62nd, the highest they had been projected to finish an upcoming season in SP+ since 2018.

That projection was significantly influenced by BC’s returning production (47th nationally)—also BC’s highest since 2018. Of course, it didn’t matter how much talent the Eagles had back when quarterback Phil Jurkovec was sidelined for six games with a season-threatening fracture to his throwing hand.

BC ended up finishing the 2021 season 75th in SP+. And, after ranking 89th in returning production this go around, Connelly’s projections have the Eagles rounding out 2022 at 76th in SP+.

Returning production is one of three primary factors Connelly uses to create his annual SP+ projections. The other two are recent history (including last year’s SP+ ratings) and recent recruiting (which now includes incoming transfers).

Connelly defines SP+ as a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency.” He came up with the predictive model at Football Outsiders in 2008 and has been making small enhancements to it as the years have gone on. Unlike the AP or Coaches Poll, which recognize programs’ in-season résumés reflective of strength of schedule and big wins, the SP+ system is a forward-facing and weighted evaluation that tracks, in Connelly’s words, the “most sustainable and predictable aspects of football,” using play-by-play and drive data.

During the season, Connelly employs five factors to determine SP+ ratings: efficiency, explosiveness, field position, finishing drives, and turnovers. SP+ is presented in the adjusted points per game format, which indicates how many points better (positive) or worse (negative) a team is than the average college football team in the current season. Within an overall SP+ rating lies offensive and defensive SP+ ratings. Those are displayed in adjusted scoring averages (points per game).

​​Factoring in predictive personnel stats, such as percentage of quarterback passing yards returning and percentage of passes defended returning, Connelly’s rankings are weighted evaluations of how much production a team is returning on both sides of the ball. It’s a more analytical and accurate measure of experience than, say, the number of returning starters (for Connelly’s full explanation, click here).

But, for those curious, BC returns six starters on offense and seven starters on defense. Last year, the Eagles brought back nine offensive starters and seven defensive starters.

Connelly’s model has BC returning 60% of its overall 2021 production, the fourth-lowest mark of any ACC team (only ahead of Duke, Virginia and Georgia Tech). More specifically, BC returns 53% of its offensive output from last year (102nd nationally) and 67% of its defensive production (65th).

The Eagles’ offensive SP+ projection is 25.5 adjusted points per game (84th nationally; finished 84th in 2021), while their defensive SP+ projection is also 25.5 adjusted points per game (63rd nationally; finished 63rd in 2021). That gives BC an overall SP+ rating of 0.0. In other words, the Eagles are projected to land smack dab in the middle of the FBS, at least as far as this metric is concerned.

Here’s how the ACC shakes out.

Note: Figures represented are adjusted points per game, followed by the respective national ranking in parentheses.

1. Clemson 21.0 overall (5th)

● Breakdown: 32.1 offense (41st), 11.1 defense (1st)

2. Pittsburgh 16.2 overall (13th)

● Breakdown: 37.3 offense (15th), 21.1 defense (31st)

3. North Carolina State 16.0 overall (15th)

● Breakdown: 31.8 offense (43rd), 15.8 defense (8th)

4. Miami 14.6 overall (20th)

● Breakdown: 35.5 offense (24th), 20.9 defense (29th)

5. Florida State 13.4 overall (24th)

● Breakdown: 31.2 offense (47th), 17.8 defense (13th)

6. Louisville 12.7 overall (29th)

● Breakdown: 38.6 offense (8th), 25.9 defense (67th)

7. North Carolina 10.1 overall (40th)

● Breakdown: 37.2 offense (17th), 27.1 defense (72nd)

8. Wake Forest 7.4 overall (47th)

● Breakdown: 38.1 offense (9th), 30.8 defense (97th)

9. Syracuse 4.5 overall (58th)

● Breakdown: 27.8 offense (70th), 23.3 (46th)

10. Virginia Tech 4.3 overall (59th)

● Breakdown: 25.7 offense (82nd), 21.4 defense (32nd)

11. Virginia 3.3 overall (63rd)

● Breakdown: 38.6 offense (7th), 35.3 defense (116th)

12. BC 0.0 overall (76th)

● Breakdown: 25.5 offense (84th), 25.5 defense (63rd)

13. Georgia Tech -4.7 overall (92nd)

● Breakdown: 27.8 offense (69th), 32.5 defense (108th)

14. Duke -13.7 overall (117th)

● Breakdown: 22.4 offense (103rd), 36.0 defense (118th)

This isn’t a fool-proof metric. For instance, this time last year, Wake Forest yielded the 56th-best offensive SP+ rating projection. The Demon Deacons finished 10th in that category.

But Connelly’s model has held up over the years and is useful, perhaps not exclusively, but in conjunction with other metrics, like ESPN’s Football Power Index, to gather a better sense of how a team will fare in the coming year.

If BC’s offense can realize its potential, it should overperform its SP+ ratings. That “if”—along with roster durability—will likely decide the season, too.