If it wasn’t for a 94-yard, Chase Brice-led touchdown drive, Syracuse might have upset Clemson for the second straight year in 2018, improved to 5-0, and climbed inside the top 10 of the AP Poll. At the time, the Orange were a legitimate threat to win the ACC.
It was hard to believe then. And it’s unfathomable now.
Syracuse has quickly plummeted to the basement of the conference. In year five of Dino Babers’ tenure, the Orange have struggled in every sense of the word. It started in the summer when players sat out three practices in the span of eight days because of COVID-19 testing protocol concerns. Then, a handful of key playmakers decided to opt out. Since, more have followed, and injuries have further depleted the roster.
The program is off to its worst seven-game start in 12 years and is in danger of its first one-win season since 2005. Syracuse will host Boston College on Saturday, a team trending in the complete opposite direction, a week removed from its own near-upset win in Death Valley.
When is BC playing?
Saturday, Nov. 7, 2 p.m.
Where is BC playing?
Carrier Dome, Syracuse, N.Y.
How to watch?
The game will be broadcast on NESN and RSN.
Series History
Syracuse leads the all-time series, 32-21. The rivalry between the old Big East foes dates back 96 years. In the late ’80s and throughout the ’90s, the Orange had BC’s number. In fact, from 1987 to 1998, Syracuse posted a 10-2 record against the Eagles. Since the Orange joined the ACC in 2013, Syracuse has had a slight edge, winning four of the programs’ seven matchups. The road team has emerged victorious in the last four meetings. BC has stitched together back-to-back blowout wins in the Carrier Dome. Last year, the Eagles racked up a school record 691 total yards of offense and 58 points, the most BC has ever scored in an ACC contest. AJ Dillon and David Bailey combined for 414 yards and five touchdowns on the ground.
Syracuse’s record: 1-6 (1-5 ACC)
Breaking Down the Orange:
Offense: Syracuse ranks dead last in the ACC and 100th of 103 FBS teams in total offense. The Orange are averaging a lowly 266.6 yards per game and a ghastly 4.3 yards per play. Things started to fall apart before the season even started, when Syracuse’s top-two returning running backs, Abdul Adams and Jarveon Howard, decided to opt out. Then, during the Orange’s lone win of the season—a 37-20 victory over Georgia Tech—starting tailback Jawhar Jordan went down with a lower-body injury. His replacement, Sean Tucker, got hurt against Clemson. Cooper Lutz, who played slot receiver his first two years at Syracuse before converting to running back this offseason, got the bulk of the carries versus Wake Forest.
The injury bug bit starting quarterback Tommy DeVito, too. The redshirt junior gunslinger suffered a season-ending ankle injury at Duke, and the keys were handed over to veteran Rex Culpepper. Despite being one of the best stories in college football, Culpepper has been far from efficient in his three starts this season, completing just 47.3% of his passes and piling up eight turnovers, including a costly fumble against Clemson and a pick-six versus Wake Forest. Babers hasn’t indicated who will start behind center Saturday. True freshman JaCobian Morgan was 7-of-7 for 57 yards and a score in garbage time last weekend.
Hafley praised the Orange’s wide receiver corps this week, even comparing Nykeim Johnson’s speed to that of Zay Flowers. Taj Harris leads the group with 29 receptions and 446 yards. Johnson’s second with 243, averaging 16.2 yards per catch. Like Harris, Anthony Queeley is a big target on the outside. He has 24 receptions on the year. Tight ends Luke Benson and Aaron Hackett have teamed up for just eight catches in 2020, but three of them have gone for touchdowns. The O-Line, which had only eight scholarship players by mid-October, has allowed 28 sacks—the second-most in the country—although 20 of those have come in three games.
Defense: Wednesday night Trill Williams joined AP Preseason First-Team All-American safety Andre Cisco as the second Orange defensive back to opt out midseason and declare early for the 2021 NFL Draft. Even so, Syracuse still has a bunch of talent on the back end, the best position group of Tony White’s 3-3-5 defense. It’s a youth movement, with four freshmen starting in the secondary in each of the past three games. Redshirt freshman Garrett Williams has started every game this season at corner. He and fellow CB Ifeatu Melifonwu have gone the most targets without allowing a touchdown pass this year, according to Pro Football Focus. All in all, Syracuse has conceded 245.4 passing yards per game, ninth among ACC teams
Five different Orange defensive backs have nabbed an interception this season, playing a significant role in helping Syracuse lead the nation with 17 takeaways. At center stage, however, is linebacker Mikel Jones, who has accounted for five turnovers by himself. Jones leads the team with 49 total tackles and is tied for the most interceptions in the country with three picks, not to mention his two forced fumbles. Also in the second level lies Geoff Cantin-Arku, a 6-foot-4 sophomore who’s tallied 36 solo tackles this year, tied for tops on the team.
Where Syracuse is probably weakest is in the trenches. The Orange are tied for the second-fewest sacks in the ACC and bottom out the conference in rushing defense. Even though Syracuse has improved the past few weeks in the run-stopping department, Babers’ team is still 92nd nationally, having given up an average of 227.6 yards per game on the ground through seven games. Josh Black and Kingsley Jonathan are the Orange’s best bet of getting to Phil Jurkovec Saturday afternoon.
Special Teams: Syracuse once again has one of the best kicker-punter tandems in the ACC. Andre Szmyt, two years removed from becoming the third-ever freshman to win the Lou Groza Award (Heisman equivalent for place kickers), is 5-of-7 on the season. He uncharacteristically missed a field goal inside 30 yards during the season opener at North Carolina but bounced back and, against GT and Duke, made kicks of 47 and 48 yards, respectively. Nolan Cooney has filled in the shoes of now-Atlanta Falcons punter Sterling Hofrichter just about as well as anyone could have expected. The redshirt senior ranks fourth in the conference in punt average (45.3 yards per boot) and leads the ACC with 17 punts inside the 20-yard line. Additionally, it’s worth noting that Syracuse is 33rd in kickoff return average (21.6 yards per return).
Three Storylines:
Syracuse will have to stop BC on 3rd Down if it’s to have a chance.
BC is converting 3rd Downs at the fourth-best clip (45.2%) among ACC teams this season. Meanwhile, Syracuse is moving the sticks less than a quarter of the time and is the second worst team in the league at defending 3rd Down. Babers and offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert like to ramp up the tempo, but that can backfire. Quick three-and-outs are a recipe for potential disaster against a BC team that can hold the ball for a long time if it wants. Last week at Clemson, the Eagles had two drives over seven and a half minutes.
If BC loses, it’s probably because it turned the ball over and committed costly penalties.
On paper, Syracuse doesn’t stand too much of a chance against this BC offense, especially if the Eagles get the ground game going again. That said, as long as the Orange keep forcing turnovers, they’ll give themselves an opportunity to make things interesting. With the exception of BC’s five-turnover loss at Virginia Tech, Jeff Hafley’s team has done a pretty good job of taking care of the ball this season. Yet there have been some close calls. Last week alone, Jurkovec had two interceptions negated by personal fouls. Self-inflicted wounds, including penalties, would be BC’s worst nightmare on Saturday.
The Eagles’ air attack will test Syracuse’s impressive secondary. Who will have the edge?
In 2019, BC gutted the Orange defense by pounding the rock down their throat. This time around, the Eagles come in averaging the third-most passing yards in the ACC. Jurkovec will be working against an intriguing and young Syracuse back end, which has performed particularly well in the red zone this season. It’s a group that, despite its imperfections, has the propensity for making big plays, like forcing Trevor Lawrence’s first career pick-six.
Line: BC (-14)
ESPN FPI: The database gives the Eagles a 79.8% chance to beat Syracuse.
Outlook: BC showed the country that it can play with Clemson last week. The Orange are just trying to prove they can win another game in 2020. It’s a matchup that also has recruiting implications, considering the programs’ regional ties. With a third consecutive blowout win in the Carrier Dome, the Eagles would establish themselves as the premier ACC team in the Northeast and rejoin the upper echelon of the conference. The pieces are in place for BC to carry on its momentum to Central New York and for Syracuse to continue its downward spiral.
