Boston College has knocked on the door of a Clemson upset two years in a row. BC hasn't topped the Tigers since 2010, but the teams' last two matchups have both been decided by six points.
Clemson failed to win the ACC for the first time in seven years last season. Still, Dabo Swinney's squad—in spite of its 82nd-ranked scoring offense—reached the 10-win mark.
Now, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has experienced a resurgence in his junior season, and the Tigers' offense is humming again. Clemson is undefeated after five games, and the No. 5 Tigers are 20.5-point favorites for their Week 6 matchup at BC Saturday night.
All signs point to a Clemson win, and maybe a decisive one at that, however, it's the ninth-annual Red Bandana Game, and the honorary event has inspired surprising performances before.
In the final year of ACC divisions, before the conference switches to its 3-5-5 scheduling model, the Eagles will get their yearly crack at Swinney and Co.
It's no longer about BC going toe-to-toe with the Tigers. It's about beating them, regardless of the spread or the Eagles' sub-par 2-3 start.
WHEN IS BC PLAYING CLEMSON?
Saturday, Oct. 8, 7:30 p.m.
WHERE IS BC PLAYING CLEMSON?
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
SERIES HISTORY
Clemson leads the all-time series, 20-9-2. BC won its first three games against the Tigers after joining the ACC in 2005. Since, however, the Eagles have won just once. Things got ugly in the 2010s. That decade, the Tigers beat BC by an average of 21.2 points per game. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, the Eagles mustered just one touchdown. That included their top-20, "College GameDay"-featured matchup, in which BC starting quarterback Anthony Brown was sidelined on BC's first offensive series. In 2020, the Phil Jurkovec-led Eagles staked themselves to a 28-10 lead in the first half but couldn't hold on in Memorial Stadium. Last year, BC was 11 yards away from the Death Valley upset, but a mistimed snap cost Dennis Grosel and the Eagles the monumental win.
BREAKING DOWN THE 2022 TIGERS
Clemson's Record: 5-0 (3-0 ACC)
Offense: There are a handful of reasons why Uiagalelei has been able to hit the reset button and look like the top-tier college quarterback he was expected to be. Perhaps the most notable, outside of his own development—which has featured quicker decision making and better pocket presence—is the experience of the offensive line. Last year, that unit, similar to BC's this season, was seemingly in a constant state of change. But the Tigers returned four starters this offseason. Freshman right tackle Blake Miller is the lone newcomer, and he's thrived, logging a Pro Football Focus run blocking grade of 72.4 and allowing just 10 pressures through five games.
Uiagalelei is sporting an 11:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with a 65.4% completion percentage and 1,242 passing yards. With more time to throw, he's finally been able to show his downfield passing ability. Uiagalelei entered the week with the sixth-most completions of 20-plus yards through the air (16) in the FBS this season, per PFF. The 6-foot-4, 235-pound dual threat also has the second-most carries (55) on the team. Those have gone for 242 yards and three rushing touchdowns.
Sophomore Will Shipley spearheads Clemson's run game. Of ACC players with at least 400 rushing yards this season, Shipley's 6.3 yards per carry is third in the conference. He's found the paint seven times on the ground. Additionally, he's flashed his hands with nine grabs and 80 receiving yards so far this fall. Fellow running backs Phil Mafah and Kobe Pace have both piled up 20-plus totes in 2022, but neither have averaged north of 3.9 yards per rush.
Four of Uiagalelei's top-five receivers are 6-foot-3 or taller. Beaux Collins (14 receptions, 232 yards, four touchdowns) and Joseph Ngata (13 receptions, 208 yards) are both 6-foot-3. Then there's the Tigers' tight end duo of Jake Briningstool (14 receptions, 156 yards, three touchdowns) and Davis Allen (13 receptions, 141 yards and two touchdowns), both of whom are 6-foot-6. Freshman Antonio Williams is only 5-foot-11, but he's a burner and is second on the team with 229 receiving yards.
Defense: Not only does Clemson have a new offensive coordinator in Brandon Streeter, but the Tigers are also in their first year with defensive coordinator Wes Goodwin. Although Clemson's defense hasn't been quite as dominant as most expected—in large part because of a vulnerable secondary—Goodwin is still overseeing a unit that demands respect throughout the ACC. It's a group that responded after conceding 45 points to Wake Forest by giving up just 10 points in the first half against then-No. 10 North Carolina State last week, en route to a 30-20 win.
Thanks to their powerful front seven, the Tigers held NFL prospect Devin Leary to a mere 245 passing yards on 47 attempts. Clemson generated 19 pressures and four sacks in the victory, per PFF. Saturday night against BC, the Tigers will be without defensive tackle and projected first-round pick Bryan Bresee—who was sidelined versus N.C. State with a non-football medical issue as well—but Clemson has plenty of depth on its defensive line. Tigers edge rushers Myles Murphy, KJ Henry and Justin Mascoll double as effective run defenders. In fact, those three have notched PFF run defense grades of 72.6, 71.0 and 70.8 this season, respectively.
Tyler Davis is another future NFLer at the tackle spot in Clemson's 4-3, and his seven pressures forced this season can't go unnoticed. The Tigers are loaded in the second level, too. The trio of Barrett Carter, Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and Trenton Simpson has been superb in 2022. They've helped Clemson's vaunted D-Line hold opponents to an average of 69.6 rushing yards per game, the second fewest in the country. Simpson is tops on the team with 32 total tackles this season.
The back end is the only shaky part of the Tigers' defense. BC could exploit a Clemson pass defense that's conceding 263.2 yards per game through the air—that's 107th nationally—but only if Jurkovec actually has the protection he needs. The Tigers have given up 22 pass plays of 20 or more yards, which is tied with Wake Forest for the most any ACC defense has allowed this season. Graduate Sheridan Jones is probably Clemson's top corner, but he's had injury trouble. Opponents have seized the opportunity against young Tigers DBs like sophomore Nate Wiggins and true freshman Toriano Pride Jr., both of whom are giving up reception percentages higher than 60% right now, per PFF.
Special Teams: BT Potter is about as good from 50-plus as any college kicker you'll see. The longtime Tigers place kicker is 8-of-10 from that distance in his career. This year, Potter has been close to perfect. He's 10-of-11 on field goals and 22-of-22 on PATs. Where Clemson has taken a step back is the punting department. The Tigers had to replace Will Spiers, and Aidan Swanson is having a tough time filling those shoes. Swanson is 13th in the ACC in punt average (39.5 yards), and his five punts inside the 20 are tied for seventh most in the league. Shipley is Clemson's kickoff return man, and Will Taylor is running back punts for the Tigers. Their return stats don't jump off the page, but Taylor is ninth in the ACC with 4.4 yards per punt return.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
52.56% — third-down conversion rate Clemson has registered so far this season, a clip that's good for first in the ACC and ninth nationally.
6.8 — penalties per game averaged by the Tigers, who racked up a combined 19 infractions in their last two games.
18 — total receptions recorded by Clemson tight ends Jake Briningstool and Davis Allen the last two weeks. They've also teamed up for four touchdowns in that span.
ESPN FPI
The database gives Clemson a 93.7% chance of beating BC in Week 6.
OUTLOOK
Clemson's front seven could wreak havoc on a BC offensive line that has struggled most of the season. Fortunately for the Eagles, they appear to have continuity up front for the first time in 2022, and that group is coming off a respectable outing against Louisville.
Unlike last year's matchup, though, Uiagalelei probably won't afford BC opportunities to hang around without legitimate offense. BC will likely need to win the turnover battle, something the Eagles have done only once this year (and that was against FCS Maine).
When you're 20.5-point underdogs, you have to play a complete game—fit with star performances—to stage the upset.
That's what the Eagles need under the lights of Alumni Stadium Saturday.