This is Mike Norvell's "prove it" season. The leash is short in Tallahassee, given the program's prolific pedigree. And, although Florida State had shown improvement under Norvell—even winning five of its last eight games in 2021—the Seminoles entered the fall having not made a bowl since he took over as head coach ahead of the COVID-19-affected 2020 season.
Like Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley, Norvell was dealt the tough hand of starting his FSU stay amid a pandemic. Not only that, but, in 2020, FSU had the youngest team in the country, with 84 of its 114 players being freshmen or sophomores.
But FSU has reeled in back-to-back top-30 recruiting classes, and it added an arsenal of weapons through the transfer portal this offseason. Most importantly, the Seminoles welcomed back established returners in all three phases of the game.
Talent, however, has rarely been the problem for the Seminoles, who limped to an 0-4 start last season, even losing to FCS Jacksonville State.
Except, FSU has flipped the script this time around. At least, so far.
The Seminoles are off to their first 3-0 start since 2015. Last week, they outlasted Louisville on the road despite injuries to starting quarterback Jordan Travis and top pass rusher Jared Verse. Two weeks before that, they escaped Baton Rouge with a nail-biting win over LSU.
FSU is making the plays it so often hasn't the last few years. That's been a shot in the arm to a Seminoles fan base thirsty for greatness.
WHEN IS BC PLAYING FSU?
Saturday, Sept. 24, 8 p.m.
WHERE IS BC PLAYING FSU?
Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, Florida
SERIES HISTORY
FSU leads the all-time series, 13-5, and the Seminoles have won 10 of the teams' last 11 meetings. BC's lone victory in that span came in 2017 when the Eagles whooped FSU, 35-3, in their annual Red Bandana Game. That outcome was arguably the breaking point for then-FSU head coach Jimbo Fisher, who resigned after the season before jumping to Texas A&M. But former BC head coach Steve Addazio punted the game away the following year in Tallahassee, saying goodbye to BC's top-25 ranking, and the Seminoles haven't looked back since. While close, the last two matchups have gone FSU's way, despite both being played at BC. Last year, the Eagles nearly staged a 23-point second-half comeback but fell short.
BREAKING DOWN THE 2022 SEMINOLES
FSU's Record: 3-0 (1-0 ACC)
Offense: It's up in the air whether quarterback Jordan Travis will play against BC. The fact that he could is remarkable, considering how his leg injury looked last week at Louisville. If the fifth-year signal caller can't go, redshirt sophomore Tate Rodemaker—who piloted FSU to victory over the Cardinals—will get the nod. Travis is a dual threat who has made significant strides as a passer. He started the Louisville game 11-of-11 and is completing 67.7% of his attempts this season. Rodemaker, on the other hand, has thrown five interceptions in a sample size of 47 college passes. Rodemaker's athleticism is unquestioned, though. BC head coach Jeff Hafley even noted that the 6-foot-4 gunslinger might have the strongest arm he's seen on tape so far this year.
Norvell and offensive coordinator/O-Line coach Alex Atkins were busy in the portal this offseason. Three transfer wideouts have made a game-changing impact to this point: Johnny Wilson (Arizona State), Mycah Pittman (Oregon) and Deuce Spann (Illinois). That trio has combined for 24 catches, 402 receiving yards and two touchdowns through three weeks of action. The 6-foot-7 Wilson, who Hafley referred to as "the giant," starred against Louisville, where he hauled in seven passes for 149 yards and two scores. The wideout room also features Ontaria Wilson, a redshirt senior who led the Seminoles in receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in 2021.
In addition to Pittman, FSU brought aboard running back Trey Benson, a fellow Oregon transfer. Benson is one of four Seminoles backs averaging at least 5.7 yards per carry, and he's one of two averaging seven yards or more a pop. Treshaun Ward headlines the dynamic group, as he's piled up 302 yards on 40 attempts. But Atkins' offense calls for a rotation in the backfield. Ward, Benson and Lawrance Toafili all have at least 23 carries this season. The Seminoles' offensive line has lost two players for the year since the start of fall camp, including Week 1 starting right tackle Bless Harris. It's a unit that's buoyed by three transfers and is better in run blocking than pass protection.
Defense: Defensive coordinator Adam Fuller's base defense is a 4-2-5, the same formation BC has rolled out under Hafley and DC Tem Lukabu. That covers some of the depth concerns the Seminoles have at linebacker. UCF transfer Tatum Bethune is tops on the team with 21 total tackles, including 15 solos and a sack to his name. Bethune is also second among all Seminoles in Pro Football Focus run defense grade (85.0). His partner-in-crime most of the time, Kalen DeLoach, has a staggering missed tackle rate of 25.0%, per PFF (Bethune's is a fifth of that). Redshirt sophomore DJ Lundy gets rotated in at linebacker, too, but he's had tackling issues of his own.
FSU was best known for its pass rush last year. Out went Jermaine Johnson II—the New York Jets defensive end who was the 26th overall pick in this year's draft—and in came Albany transfer Jared Verse. After splashing in his first two games of the season, during which he piled up three sacks and nine pressures, Verse left the Louisville game with an apparent leg injury. If Verse is out Saturday, Derrick McLendon and DeLoach are probably FSU's best remaining pass rushers (respectively, they have mounted seven and eight pressures this year, per PFF). It's worthing noting as well that the Seminoles' top defensive tackle, Fabien Lovett, was out against the Cardinals. Without both of them, FSU's D-Line would take a hit, and so would FSU's run defense, which is 87th nationally right now.
Part of the reason why the Seminoles have struggled against the ground game is because they've faced two elusive quarterbacks in Jayden Daniels (LSU) and Malik Cunningham (Louisville). Although FSU has taken a step back in that department—it gave up 3.6 yards per carry in 2021—it has moved the needle on the back end. The Seminoles are allowing only 174.3 passing yards per game. That's second in the ACC and tied for 24th in the FBS. Redshirt junior Renardo Green is the Seminoles' top cover corner right now. He's been targeted nine times and has conceded just 7.7 yards per reception on six catches, per PFF. Plus, he has a team-best 88.4 PFF tackling grade. FSU is most menacing at safety, where it has Akeem Dent and Jammie Robinson, the latter of whom actually earned a pair of ACC Preseason Player of the Year votes. Both have three passes defended and 17 total tackles this season.
Special Teams: Like BC, FSU has a bit of a kicking problem on its hands (or its feet, if you will). Ryan Fitzgerald has missed three field goals this year (3-of-6), including a pair inside 40. He was 10-of-13 on field goals in 2021. His long was 53 yards, and he was 3-of-5 on kicks from 40 yards out. But Fitzgerald's unpredictability showed up big time on PATs last season—he missed four of those (37-of-41). Redshirt sophomore punter Alex Mastromanno came into the year with 93 straight boots without a touchback. That streak is still kicking. He's averaging 45.3 yards per punt, which is good for fifth in the ACC. Cornerback Sam McCall is returning kicks for FSU (18.4 yards per return), and Pittman is running back punts (4.0 yards per return).
NUMBERS TO KNOW
3 — different Seminoles have led the team in receiving yards each game this season. First it was Kentron Poitier against Duquesne (84), then it was Ontaria Wilson versus LSU (102) and, most recently, it was Johnny Wilson at Louisville (149).
23 — plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage FSU has posted this season, a mark that was tied for fifth nationally heading into Week 4.
4.65 — yards per carry the Seminoles are allowing this year. That's third-worst in the ACC.
ESPN FPI
The database gives FSU a 89.7% chance of beating BC in Week 4.
OUTLOOK
BC has to achieve a better offensive balance to have a chance against FSU. That means the Eagles will need to establish some kind of run game—for what it's worth, the Seminoles' run D is their weak link—and control the clock in order to limit FSU's possession count. Of course, that requires much-improved offensive line play, perhaps even a quantum leap from last week's performance against FCS Maine.
If things click for BC's five up front, and that's a big "if," the Eagles could make things interesting down South, especially if a turnover-prone Rodemaker has to start in place of Travis. On paper, this isn't a favorable matchup for BC, though.
While the Eagles have looked better versus the run the past two weeks, Saturday night will be a true measure of how far BC has come in that department.