Published Dec 2, 2017
Game 9: Boston College vs. Hartford Preview / Predictions
circle avatar
Evan Gray  •  EagleAction
Staff
Twitter
@Game7Evan

Boston College closes its three game road trip at Hartford

The Eagles head to Hartford in pretty bad shape. In their three game road trip that includes stops in Providence, Nebraska, and now Hartford, the Eagles have lost two games and two starters--with Jordan Chatman and Teddy Hawkins dealing with shoulder and knee injuries, respectively. With a very important home game against Duke next Saturday, it seems very unlikely that Chatman or Hawkins will suit up against Hartford, meaning the already-thin Eagles will look to Steffon Mitchell and Vin Baker Jr. to fill in the gaps. Mitchell, one of the best rebounders in the ACC, had mixed success in his first career start at Nebraska. His defense and hustle is exactly what the Eagles had been missing, but his high-energy play is best suited coming off the bench at this point, especially considering his work-in-process offensive game. Baker Jr., whose father played for Hartford from 1989 to 1993, saw his first major minutes of the season in Wednesday’s loss, and they went pretty much how you’d expect a 17 year-old’s first major minutes to go--sloppy but promising.

Unfortunately, the injuries to BC couldn’t come at a worse time, as the Eagles need a solid finish to their non-conference schedule if they want any NIT consideration come March. With an almost certain defeat coming against #1 Duke next Saturday, a loss to Hartford would condemn the Eagles to a 5-5 record, with games against Columbia, Central Connecticut State, and Richmond remaining. Even if BC was able to win all three of those games, an 8-4 non-conference record is only 1 game better than last year. That being said, hopefully the shorthanded Eagles can still find a way to pull out a win at Hartford on Saturday.

Scouting the Opponent: Hartford

In what was probably the lowest moment of the season for the Eagles, the 2-8 Harford Hawks--with losses to bad teams in Central Connecticut State, Rider, Rutgers, and Quinnipiac--came into Conte Forum and defeated Boston College 65-68 (Highlights HERE if you dare). A game where BC shot 34% from the field, the Eagles trailed by as as many as 11 in the second half, but ultimately made a run to take a 63-62 lead with 13 seconds left. However, whether by a stroke of fate or skill, sophomore guard Jason Dunne buried a three with 2.1 seconds left to lift the Hawks over the Eagles 65-63. In what was one of the worst losses in program history, where Jerome Robinson, Ty Graves, Connar Tava, and Jordan Chatman shot a combined 9-36, the Eagles had sunk to a new low.

In 2016-17, Hartford was one of the worst offensive teams in Division 1, shooting just 40.2% for the year on a sad 66.8 points per game. In conference play, the offense was even worse, as the Hawks shot a miserable 37.5% from the field--worst in the conference--losing by an average margin of 12.2 points to teams like Albany, Maine, Stony Brook, and UMBC. Statistically, Harford was below average in every category except for steals, where the Hawks averaged 7.1 takeaways per game.

So far, the 2017-2018 Hartford Hawks are still struggling on both sides of the floor. Opening their season with an 85-84 OT win against Central Connecticut State and a 80-63 thrashing of DIII opponent Gordon College, the Hawks have dropped five of their last six contests. Losing 89-53 to Rider (Hartford shot 17-58) and 86-84 to LIU-Brooklyn, Hartford defeated Miami (OH) 68-58 before losing three more games against Bryant 78-73,Wagner 72-50 (Hartford shot 14-51), and Long Island University 79-78.

Offensively, the Hawks are getting 67% of their scoring from three junior players: 6’8” forward John Carroll (17.8 ppg), 6’3” guard Jason Dunne (17.0 ppg), and 5’10” point guard JR Lynch (12.0 ppg). Carroll, after averaging just 6.4 ppg last season, has come on strong for the Hawks, finishing with 20+ points in 3 of the first 8 games, including a 9-14, 26 point performance in the OT win over Central Connecticut State to open the season. Steffon Mitchell will likely be guarding Carroll for the majority of this game, and Carroll is a guy who loves to take to the rack and use his 6’8” frame to his advantage. Mitchell has already proven himself to be more than willing to put his body on the line for the team, and Carroll, a 6’8” Irishman, will provide a nice test for the freshman.

Still, the most complete offensive player for the Hawks is starting shooting guard Jason Dunne, and the Eagles know all too well how lethal Dunne can be from deep if left unguarded. Last season, Dunne delivered the fatal blow that sealed the upset for the Hawks at Conte Forum, and the Eagles' poor perimeter defending this season suggests Dunne may be primed for another big performance. Averaging 17 points per game this season, Dunne has hit double digits in all but one game, and went off for 36 points on 20 shots against Rider--he was 8-14 from deep. The Eagles have really struggled defending the triple this season, and with Dunne shooting 40% from three on nearly 9 attempts per games, BC hopefully has a plan to mitigate the open looks.

While Carroll and Dunne are shooting 48% and 47% from the field this season, respectively, the rest of the Hawks are really why Hartford has struggled so much. Aside from the starting center Hassan Attia, who is shooting 80% from the field on 4 attempts per game, non-Carroll-and-Dunne Hawks are shooting just 32% from the field on nearly 32 attempts per game. As a result, teams can simply focus all their energy on defending those two, as the rest of Hawks have yet to prove they can hit shots. Consequently, Hartford’s offense can go ice cold for extended periods, and BC should be able to overwhelm the Hawks--even without Chatman and Hawkins.

At full strength, this would be another easy win for Boston College, but even down two starters, BC has no excuse losing. That being said, Hartford has a few things going for them. Firstly, Hartford has proven they can beat BC, so expect them to play this game confidently. Jason Dunne, Hartford’s best player, lit the Eagles up for 25 points last year, including five triples--and he will be looking to repeat that success. Secondly, the Eagles are pretty awful in road games--they haven’t won a true road game since March 2015.

All signs point to BC winning, but we would’ve said the same thing in last year’s contest. Hartford Athletics is promoting this game as their “Capital City’s Home Game of the Year” so expect a big crowd for Hartford standards, and another upset of an ACC team would do wonders for this struggling program.

Key for BC: Relax

Boston College will be relying heavily on Steffon Mitchell, JC Reyes, Vin Baker Jr., Nik Popovic, and Luka Kraljevic in the frontcourt in this game--not the most experienced players in the world. We’ve seen a lot of sloppy mistakes by these young guys on both sides of the floor. Blown coverages, miscommunications, not knowing plays, etc. have all plagued BC throughout the season, and with Chatman and Hawkins down, the freshmen are going to have to grow up fast. But BC will have every advantage over Hartford in this one. They have the size, the scoring, and for once, the depth advantage, meaning they just need to chill out and let the game come to them.

In the second half against Nebraska, we saw this injured BC squad put everything on the line and nearly win. The Eagles showed their heart in that game, but unfortunately heart isn’t good enough when you shoot 4-22 from the field and have 15 turnovers. There’s no denying this BC squad’s effort, but a lot of the time, the effort is channeled into extremely inefficient things. The Eagles play hard, but currently, they’ve yet to find a way to play smart. Coming into this Hartford game, the Eagles need a solid defensive performance to slow down Dunne and Carroll, because come next Saturday, Marvin Bagley and Grayson Allen will make Dunne and Carroll look like schoolgirls.

BC needs to establish good habits defensively that can lead to easy offense, and that starts by just relaxing and playing smart. Don’t overthink things; communicate on screens, watch the shooters, rebound, and stop turning it over.

Prediction: Boston College Wins 75-62

BC needs a win badly, and I expect the Eagles to walk away with their first road victory since March 2015. Hatford has a few solid scorers in Dunne and Carroll, but the rest of their team is so inept offensively that the shorthanded Eagles should be able to hold the Hawks to under 40% shooting. Moreover, BC has the two best players in the game in Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson, and even though both players have been up and down this season, they have no reason not to lead BC to a double-digit win.

The Eagles need confidence after some early season struggles and some tough injury news, and getting revenge on a team that embarrassed them last year would be a nice start.

BC has its toughest game of the season next Saturday, and heading into their game against #1 Duke on a three game losing streak would be a recipe for disaster.

BC needs this win bad, and I hesitate to use the term "must win" when talking about a road game against Hartford... but this is a must win game.

Stay tuned with EagleAction for more coverage! Follow @Game7Evan and @BCEagleAction for in-game updates!