We break down a solid year for the big men
Next up on EagleAction's player grades: Centers Nik Popovic and Johncarlos Reyes!
We'll take a look at the good things and bad things for each player this season and preview where they might be next year!
If you missed part one where we broke down Steffon Mitchell, Vin Baker Jr., Luka Kraljevic, and Avery Wilson, find it HERE
Nik Popovic: B+
Season Stats (35 games):
26.0 minutes, 9.9 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, 1.9 turnovers, .507 fg%, .200 3fg%, .713 ft%
Advanced Stats:
+2.2 box plus/minus, 17.0 PER, +1.5 net rating (-14.1 in ACC play), .517 eFG% (.457 in ACC play), .346 FTr
The Good
In his freshman season Nik Popovic was an overweight, foul prone center who couldn’t play for more than 5 straight minutes before he looked like he was completely out of gas.
In his sophomore season, Nik Popovic was a slimmer, less-foul prone center who was playing 30+ minutes a night by the end of the season and averaging close to 10 points a game...I think it’s safe to say he made a huge leap.
Scoring 10+ points in 18 of BC’s 35 games this season, Popovic established himself as one of the better back to the basket big men in the ACC and provided the Eagles with an interior presence they did not have last year in Connar Tava and Mo Jeffers.
A solid shooter whose range extends beyond the arc (with varied success), Nik Popovic found a way to become an offensive positive in a conference that is filled with ultra-athletic bigs. Instead of dominating with strength, Pop is a finesse center who uses solid ball skills and well timed footwork to get past his defenders. As the old trope goes, Pop isn’t fast, but he’s quick, and his postmoves are more than enough to get by slower defenders. Even better, Nik went from a 50% free throw shooter to 70%+, meaning teams can’t hack him.
At 6’10”, 230+ lbs, Pop does a nice job of running the floor and overall his conditioning is much improved, meaning he was able to play much bigger minutes this year without getting tired. Likewise, because of his improved conditioning, Pop can spend more energy fighting for offensive rebounds. Grabbing 11.1% of all available offensive rebounds, Pop was as good of an offensive rebounder as some of the best players in ACC such as Luke Maye (10.3%), Isaiah Wilking (9.7%), Elijah Thomas (11.2%), and Paschal Chukwu (12.1%).
Defensively, Pop will never be a shotblocker or anything, but he took a huge leap forward simply by not fouling nearly as much. Last season, Pop was picking up 9.8 fouls per 100 possessions and this year he was at just 5.6--so he was fouling at only half the rate. Coupled with his increased mobility, Popovic’s defensive box plus/minus went from -0.9 per 100 possessions to +1.6, meaning Pop went from a below average defender to an above average one.
Because he was in much better shape and was able to play bigger minutes, we saw some huge performances from Pop this season including a 14 rebound night against Pitt (including 6 offensive boards) and a 20 point, 5 rebound, 0 turnover game in the ACC Tournament against Georgia Tech.
And while he was far from a good three point shooter (just 5-25 on the season), Pop’s ability to draw defenders outside the paint gave guards Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman much more room to operate, and Pop did a nice job of knowing when to cut to the basket for an easy dunk.
The Bad
When it comes to the negative, it’s easy to be nitpicky with Popovic.
Firstly, his effective field goal % in conference play (which adjusts for the fact that a three is worth one more point than a two), is among the lowest of ACC starting bigs at just 45.7%. When looking at the guys with similar numbers--Steffon Mitchell 45%, Isaiah Wilkins 44.5%, Ben Lammers 43.5%--those guys make up for it with defense and also don't shoot that much. Pop, meanwhile has the 11th highest usage rate of any starting big man in the ACC and does not make up for his low field goal % with stellar defensive play. Moreover, Nik is turning the ball over on 19.9% of his possessions, which is way too high for a big man who isn’t an elite athlete.
And because Pop relies on finesse and a soft touch to be successful, matching up with the ultra-athletes of the ACC really hurts his offensive efficiency. As a result, we saw Nik struggle mightily at times against some of the more physically imposing teams--as he was just 3-10 from the field against Duke, 3-10 at FSU, and 2-7 at UNC. Because Pop is BC’s only legitimate interior presence, if he’s getting bullied down low, then all the pressure is on Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson to score--making BC an extremely one-dimensional team.
What's next
Of 23 ACC frontcourt players who played more than 700 minutes this season, Pop ranks second to last in box plus/minus (only ahead of Louisville’s VJ King). I’m not sure this stat necessarily condemns Popovic as a player, but instead shows how good the rest of the frontcourts are in the ACC. If you’re getting 25+ minutes a night on an ACC team, you’re likely one of the better players in the entire country. As younger, more athletic guys come into the conference every year, Pop’s ceiling as a finesse big is somewhat limited. He is a skilled player, but at this point he isn’t nearly efficient enough on either side of the floor to be a major impact player in the conference. However, the progress Pop has made from his freshman to sophomore season suggests he can still hone his skills even further--and overall he is already a positive player--so maybe another big step isn’t completely unfathomable. Pop transformed his body last offseason and his work ethic seems extremely strong so I hope he is able to make another leap.
From his freshman to sophomore year, we saw Pop make a physical transformation into a somewhat-slim, mobile center. He’ll never be a rim runner, but that’s not really Coach Christian’s style of play anyways. As Pop moves into his junior year, another physical transformation is unlikely, so in order for Pop to improve, he is going to have to work on his overall efficiency, particularly on the offensive end. Turnovers, free throw shooting, three point shooting, and drawing fouls are all things that Pop improved upon this year, but his overall offensive efficiency is still lower than other starting ACC centers. Playing next to the offensively challenged Steffon Mitchell for the foreseeable future, Pop is going to be bearing the brunt of the offensive load in the frontcourt. Pop is skilled, but he needs to find a way to fine tune his offensive skill set over the summer.
Johncarlos Reyes: B
Season Stats (34 games)
10.4 minutes, 2.8 points, 3.4 reb, 0.3 blks, 0.7 turnovers, 1.9 fouls, .532 fg%, .476 ft%
Advanced Stats:
-2.8 Box plus/minus, 9.3 player efficiency rating, -11.1 net rating
The Good
Coming off a 2016-2017 season where he played 10+ minutes just five times, my expectations for JC coming into his redshirt-sophomore year were fairly low.
Luckily, it was clear that JC put in a lot of work in the offseason and by the time preseason rolled around he was one of the most physically improved guys on the team. At 6’11”, JC is the tallest guy on the team, and after hitting the gym all summer, he finally started to look and play like it.
Appearing in all but one game this season, JC was a solid utility big in non-conference play who provided a nice boost of energy when Nik Popovic got tired. Feasting against Maine (12 points), Nebraska (8 points), and Georgia Tech (10 points), JC is at his best offensively playing in the pick and roll with Ky Bowman--and was the closest thing BC had to a rim runner. Against smaller competition, JC does a nice job of using his long wingspan to make his hook shots unblockable, and he found a lot of success as a clean up man, doing the dirty work against other backups. Also, Reyes has a great awareness of his positioning on the court and does a really good job of getting open for easy dunks. These types of plays are where JC is at his best on offense--playing in the flow of the game and getting easy feeds from teammates.
Defensively, because of his massive size and long arms, JC is a solid deterrent, and the opposition was afraid of going right at him in the paint (we’ll talk about his outside the paint defense later). He’ll never be a prolific shot blocker, but he can make a good play every now and then to frighten the competition.
The Bad
Unfortunately, there were many little things that Reyes continued to struggle with. Firstly, he’s pretty one dimensional defensively--and moving out of the paint is not his forte. As a result, he is pretty useless defending the pick-and-roll. He’s not fast enough to hedge effectively and if he switches onto a guard, he’s already cooked. Many times this season--in both non-conference and ACC play--Reyes was basically unplayable defensively whenever the opposition went small, as he simply doesn’t have the mobility to keep up with more crafty bigs.
Moreover, Reyes’ foul rate was way too high, so even when he was in the right position on defense, he would often send the opponent to the line. Notable heinous performances include 4 fouls in 5 minutes of action against Dartmouth and 4 fouls in 6 minutes against Miami. Fouling out was never an issue for Reyes because he wasn’t playing enough, but if he can’t defend outside the paint and also fouls the opponent every time they come into the paint, then he has no reason to be out there defensively other than to be tall.
Offensively, JC is the least skilled of BC’s bigs. He can only score when he is about 2 feet from the rim, so the competition can just not guard him if he isn’t near the basket. As a result, whenever teams went into the zone, Reyes was free to roam the baseline and was mostly left open. Whenever he got the ball on the baseline he would immediately be blitzed by two defenders and usually get blocked. And that brings us to another issue: Reyes can’t shoot free throws and also never passes.
Recording just 6 assists on the season with 24 turnovers, Reyes is essentially a black hole on offense, and if he doesn’t make his initial shot he is extremely limited--he was 10-21 from the charity stripe on the year. Worse, despite being the tallest player on the team, Reyes’ offensive rebounding numbers are fairly low (he grabbed just 5.4% of available offensive boards in ACC play compared to Pop’s 10.2% and Mitchell’s 7.7%).
As a result, it’s not surprising that BC was worse with Reyes on the floor. Compared to Popovic, Reyes lacks any versatility on offense and his foul rate is off the charts on defense.
With a guy who played only 10 minutes a game, I’m being a bit nitpicky, but as an energy big, Reyes’ being an overwhelming negative on offense is not a great thing.
What's Next
JC took a solid leap this season. He’s in the best physical shape he’s ever been and he still has two years of eligibility left. As the tallest guy on this team, Johncarlos will likely always have a small place in the rotation at minimum. Next year, especially with 6’9” forward Jairus Hamilton coming into the fold, JC will be exclusively battling for minutes as Nik Popovic’s backup at the center position. His primary competition for the backup center spot will be rising sophomore Luka Kraljevic. JC has the size advantage over the 6’10” Kraljevic, and his long arms make him much more useful as a defensive piece in ACC play. Luka, however, is a much more versatile offensive player who has shown an ability to stretch the floor, so it’s hard to say who is in the driver’s seat for the backup center spot.
As he enters his fourth year at Boston College, what we saw from JC this year is likely the finished product. After filling into his frame last offseason, JC is in a similar position as Nik Popovic--he’s likely done with his physical development and his future progression will be about fine tuning the little things. For a guy like JC who will always be a utility big, I’m not too worried about the bad foul rate, as long as he is bringing defensive energy, I’m more so worried about his positioning in pick and roll defense. Offensively, teams don’t have a reason to guard Reyes outside the paint, and if he’s playing alongside Steffon Mitchell, it’s basically 3 on 5 on offense.
Don’t get me wrong, though, Reyes has come a long way and deserves to be commended for the progression he has made over the past year. A year ago, I would’ve doubted Reyes’ ability to ever see the floor, but he has made major strides and has transformed himself into a semi-competent energy big.