We breakdown Steffon Mitchell, Vin Baker Jr., Luka Kraljevic, and Avery Wilson
A week after Boston College's basketball season officially ended, I figured we'd all had enough down time to gather our thoughts. With that in mind, let's start our player-specific "season in review" coverage with a fun topic: Freshmen.
This season, BC had four new freshmen, and luckily, we got a chance to see all of them in action. As expected, these guys have a lot of learning to do, but they're a fun group nevertheless.
For this edition of "Season Grades", I'll be a little lenient grade-wise. These guys are young, and naturally they're more prone to mistakes than others. Therefore, these grades are more reflective of how I feel about these players in practice/as prospects, rather than just pure on-court results.
Check it out below!
Steffon Mitchell: A-
Per game stats (34 appearances):
33.2 min, 6.4 pts, 8.3 reb, 2.1 ast, 1.1 stl, 1.0 blk, 1.1 tov, .417 fg%, .275 3fg%, .521 ft%
Advanced stats:
+6.8 Box Plus/Minus, +11.6 Net Rating, 14.6 Player Efficiency Rating (PER), 3.1 Win Shares
The Good
The 375th ranked recruit in the nation last year with offers from American, Central Michigan, Furman, and South Dakota State, it is unfathomable that Steffon Mitchell has turned into one of the best freshmen in the ACC. And yet here we are.
When Teddy Hawkins went down for the season with an ACL tear, Boston College would have been in major trouble had it not been for Steffon. Starting the final 27 games of the season, Mitchell quickly established himself as one of the best rebounders in the ACC. Here is a list of ACC players this year who grabbed at least 100 offensive rebounds:
The other two freshmen on this list, Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter Jr, are going to be top 10 picks in the 2018 NBA Draft. Pretty impressive company for Mitchell to be in (Mitchell also dominated Bagley in BC's upset over Duke).
Despite a limited offensive game, Steffon was statistically the most impactful player on the team this season as BC was +6.8 points per 100 possessions with Mitchell on the floor (ahead of Ky Bowman’s +4.9 and Jerome Robinson’s +4.5), and overall, Steffon was arguably the most enjoyable player on this team to watch.
Leading Boston College in rebounds and blocks while also posting a 1.9 assist to turnover ratio (2nd on team), Mitchell is the type of player you need to win basketball games. He isn't a scorer, but he impacts the game.
Best of all, out of everyone on this team, Steffon was the most consistent player all season. He might not score a ton, but Mitchell’s play breeds success. With Mitchell, BC was the 239th ranked defense in the nation this season, still lower than desirable, but God only knows how low they would've been without him.
To put it simply, I had no idea Mitchell would be this productive as a freshmen. Thrust into a starting role, Mitchell did everything asked of him.
The Bad
Unfortunately, Steffon has yet to figure out how to be consistent when it comes to actually scoring the ball. Taking 46% of all his attempts beyond the arc and only shooting 27.5% from three on the season, Mitchell never found a way to efficiently put the ball in the hoop.
The good news, Steffon wasn’t taking many bad shots… or many shots at all for that matter as he only put up 6.2 field goal attempts per 40 minutes (second to last on the team).
The bad news, teams were simply able to leave Mitchell for extended periods of time. For a lot of ACC play, defenders were sagging off of Mitchell, allowing him to take as many jumpers as he wanted, and putting more pressure on Ky Bowman and Jerome Robinson.
Technically, the lefty has some work to do on his shooting mechanics. Right now, Mitchell’s release is a tad slow and the ball comes out pretty flat--meaning there is a small margin for error on his shot. As a result, Mitchell was just 22-80 (27.5%) on the season from three and 49-94 (52.1%) from the free throw line. For an ACC “starting forward” big, those numbers are way too low and it’s not surprising that teams were daring Mitchell to shoot.
Next Year
Overall, Mitchell is a great piece moving forward. He’s already one of the best rebounders and defenders in the conference, and he will pair extremely well next to 6'9" Jairus Hamilton next season. If Hamilton, Mitchell, and Popovic start together on the front line next year, BC would be one of the more formidable frontcourts in the conference.
If Mitchell is never able to develop a consistent offensive game, his ceiling will be limited, but he is still a very effective player. For next season, Mitchell needs to work on his shooting mechanics and attempt to establish some offensive confidence. We might not see a huge leap, but Mitchell at least needs to be a reliable free throw shooter if he wants to take the next step. If BC loses Jerome Robinson this summer, next year’s offense may need a boost, and if Mitchell can develop one or two go-to moves, he should be able to keep defenders honest and open up a lot of space for BC.
Vin Baker Jr.: C+
Per game stats (29 appearances):
7.2 min, 1.9 pts, 0.9 reb, 0.2 ast, 0.1 stl, 0.6 tov, 0.8 pf, .339 fg%, .200 3fg%, .800 ft%
Advanced stats:
-5.3 Box Plus/Minus, -29.9 Net Rating, 3.9 PER
The Good
The best part of Vin's game this year was his size rather than his actual play. At 6'7", Vin has a very high ceiling at the guard spot, and we saw glimpses of the player he can be against teams like Pitt (11 points), Dartmouth (9 points), and CCSU (5 points). Yes, these weren't the toughest games on the schedule this year, but it's clear that when Vin is playing confidently, he's pretty tough to defend.
For someone who needs so much development, it was also nice we were able to see a good amount of Vin this year. Playing double-digit minutes 10 times this season, Vin was primarily a spot-up shooter who got in whenever Ky or Jerome was in foul trouble.
Vin was at his best when he was attacking the basket in transition. He's fast, long, and pretty decent around the rim. He still needs to work on his half-court game, but the groundwork is there.
The Bad
For his freshman year, Vin certainly experienced a lot of growing pains (pun intended). Still developing into 6’7”+ frame, Vin has to be one of the skinniest players in the ACC and it’s obvious he’s not entirely comfortable in his ever-growing body. As a result, what we saw out of Vin this year was a lot of turnovers, missed threes, bad fouls, and other freshmen-like things.
Taking 40 of his 56 shots this season from beyond the arc, Vin was essentially a spot up shooter who shot a terrible 8-40 (20%) from three on the season, including missing his final eight attempts. Despite the poor percentage, Vin was not afraid to let it fly as he took 11 threes per 100 possessions (higher than Jordan Chatman, Ky Bowman, or Jerome Robinson).
So it’s not surprising that BC's offensive rating plummeted when Vin was on the floor. Worse, of the 136 players in the ACC who played more than 200 minutes this season, Vin ranked dead last in Box Plus/Minus (box score-based metric for evaluating basketball players' quality and contribution to the team). Poor shooting, turnovers, and fouls seemed to be the main plague of Vin's season, and to say he looked a little rattled would be a vast understatement.
Next Year
At this point, Vin's role on the team moving forward is unclear. If Jerome Robinson leaves, Vin could look to battle for the third guard spot and carve out a solid role. However, if Jerome sticks around and with Jared Hamilton and Wynston Tabbs coming into the program, Vin could see his role limited next year. For a player who has a lot of work to do, a year of development on the bench might not be such a bad thing for BC.
In order for Vin to be effective down the road, he has to get better at three things:
1) Shooting
2) Using his size to his advantage
3) Relaxing
The first one is pretty simple, Vin shot pretty terrible from three this season and needs to work on that.
Secondly, Vin is very tall for a guard, but he needs to get stronger and figure out a way to attack the basket. If he is just a spot up shooter, he is wasting his great size.
Lastly, Vin just needs to chill out. Whenever Vin was in the game, a bad foul or a turnover spoiled whatever positive things he did. Maybe this was just freshman jitters, but if Vin wants to be a positive player, he has to slow down and stop trying to do too much.
Luka Kraljevic: B-
Per game stats (31 appearances):
9.4 min, 1.5 pts, 1.5 reb, 0.5 ast, 0.5 blk, 0.8 tov, 2.0 pf, .357 fg%, .231 3fg%, .500 ft%
Advanced stats:
-0.9 Box Plus/Minus, -28.1 Net Rating, 3.7 PER
The Good
Luka's first season at Boston College was highly reminiscent of Nik Popovic's freshman year, for better and for worse.
Playing primarily as the backup power forward, Luka showed flashes of a polished offensive game and decent defensive instincts. He's not a great athlete, but Luka hustles on every play and has pretty solid on-court awareness.
At 6'10", Luka's potential as a stretch big is fascinating and it was clear he was more than willing to shoot the three (3-13 on the year).
Playing 10+ minutes in 10 ACC games, Luka got a lot of in-game development time, and was clearly more comfortable as the season went on.
At his best, Luka is a do-it-all big who relies on finesse rather than power to get by his man. He's showed glimpses of a plethora of post-moves including a Dirk-Nowitzki-fader and with a full summer of development he can be a nice utility big off the bench.
On defense, when Luka isn't fouling, he's an alright shot blocker and is decent covering screens. Compared to Popovic and JCR, Luka is much more adept at handling a pick-and-roll, so he has clear value as a small-ball five.
The Bad
Like Popovic last year, four things were holding Luka back.
1. He's not very fast
2. He fouls way too much
3. He has a very high turnover rate
4. His shooting splits are too low for a guy his size
The first one is going to be hard to fix. Luka is never going to be a great athlete, which limits his long term effectiveness on both sides of the floor. He's never going to be a rim-runner or a shot blocker. He made up for it with hustle, but most ACC bigs had a huge athletic-advantage over him.
So with his lack of athleticism, Luka is only going to be successful because of his skillset. That starts with not fouling.
Averaging an insane 12.4 fouls per 100 possessions, Luka seemed to always pick up two quick fouls every time he came into the game. It's a shame because Luka is actually pretty good at contesting shots--most of his fouls were just boneheaded.
Worse, Luka had the highest turnover rate of 136 ACC players who played 200+ minutes, coughing the ball up on an insanely high 31% of his possessions. For a big man, a big part of being efficient is simply not losing the ball, and unfortunately, that happened far too often for Luka.
Speaking of efficiency, Luka was just 12-29 from inside the arc this season and 12-24 from the line. For a big man who is never going to overpower someone with size or strength, Luka needs a softer touch and has to convert inside.
Next Year
Nik Popovic took a huge step forward in his sophomore year, and while Luka may not have the same ceiling as Pop, I'm confident he can also improve dramatically.
Firstly, if Luka can just relax on the turnovers and the fouls, his efficiency will skyrocket. Secondly, if he can put on some muscle and work on his touch inside, I can see him being a valuable center piece, especially in small-ball situations.
In terms of a long term role, I'm not entirely sure how Luka fits into BC's plans. With Steffon Mitchell and incoming-freshman Jairus Hamilton likely taking up a lot of the PF minutes next year, Luka will likely be battling for the backup center spot with Johncarlos Reyes.
At this point, I'm going to give the nod to Luka in that battle, but his path to a 15+ minute role is limited.
To put it simply, how Luka develops this summer will have a large impact on his long-term role at Boston College.
Avery Wilson: C
Total stats (14 appearances):
46 min, 21 points, 3 reb, 1 ast, 3 stl, 1 blk, 9 tov, 8-14 fg, 2-3 3fg, 3-8 ft
Advanced Stats:
(pointless because of so few minutes, but not good)
The Good
Because Avery played such few minutes, it's hard to get an entire picture of what he can do. Instead, we were left with flashes of Avery in action--which is a good thing and a bad thing.
Of all the players on BC, Avery Wilson is the only one who remains a complete mystery to me. With his running-back-build and a smooth jumper in practice, it seems like Avery has the potential to be a quality point guard on both sides of the floor. Despite only playing 46 minutes this season, Avery was 2-3 from three, had 2 steals and 1 block, and it’s clear he’s not afraid to get out there and fight for every ball.
Defensively, Avery showed potential as a bully-guard, and offensively, he can shoot it, so I'm far from writing him off.
The Bad
For a point guard, its not good to have just 1 assist and 9 turnovers on the season, and it seems like Avery has a case of "deer-in-the-headlights-syndrome."
Whenever he got into a game, it almost felt like Avery forgot everything he was good at, resulting in some wild plays and many turnovers. It’s hard to knock a freshman who has played less than 50 minutes for an entire year, so we’ll give Avery a free pass for now, but it’s clear he still has to adjust to the collegiate game.
Unfortunately, Avery did not get much of a chance to grow in actual games, as he played just 3 minutes over the last 8 weeks of the season.
Next Year
Avery missed much of the preseason with a back injury and didn't start practicing until November, so it's understandable his adjustment to the college game was a bit stunted.
For now, I still think Avery has the tools to be a rotation player at Boston College. He has great size for a point guard and can clearly shoot the ball, he just needs to work on all of the little things. According to Coach Christian, Avery watches more film than anyone on the team, so I'm still confident that if he puts in the work, he can become a rotation level player.
Over the summer, Avery just needs to scrimmage as much as he can in order to see things on the court more clearly and figure out how to play to his strengths.
Like Vin, Avery's role may continue to be limited next season, especially if Jerome stays, which is a shame. With other highly-touted guards coming into the fold next season, the long term outlook for Avery is cloudy. He has the tools to be a solid player, I just don't know if we will see it at Boston College.