BC-Florida State Preview
Boston College enters its meeting with Florida State on Saturday with just three regular season games remaining after it.
That means the jockeying for ACC tournament seedings is winning down.
A very difficult rematch against No. 7 Virginia awaits on Wednesday night and a very bad Georgia Tech team comes to Conte Forum on the final day of the season March 4th. Before that, BC has a very difficult road test again Wake Forest, a team that beat the Eagles by 22 on their home floor a month ago.
Heading into the FSU matchup, BC is currently 10th in the ACC standings with the Seminoles right behind them. Realistically, the Eagles should go 2-2 down the stretch here and earn anywhere between the No. 9 and No. 12 seeds when things get going in New York on March 7th. BC has had some ugly losses this season and have shown their youth more often than not, but at times, they’ve also shown they’re capable of playing with some of the better teams in the conference on a given night when the ball is moving and shots are falling. This Florida State matchup is yet another opportunity for the Eagles to build some momentum entering March.
This is a winnable game for BC on Saturday, but they certainly are in no position to overlook a Seminoles team in a similar situation to BC. FSU is 8-19 overall and 6-10 in the conference. BC has the same ACC record and is only four games better in the overall standings. Florida State beat Pitt on January 21 (71-64), the same Pitt team that just throttled BC the other night. Since then, the Seminoles have struggled, going 1-6, including three straight losses. The Eagles and Seminoles are 3-3 in their last six matchups and Boston College is 1-9 all-time against Florida State in Tallahassee.
BC is still in the hunt for the No. 9 seed in the ACC tournament, which would guarantee them a bye on the first day of the five-day gauntlet and the reason why games like this one are so important, even though it may not seem like there’s a lot to play for. Having to play four games instead of five is obviously a big advantage, but North Carolina is currently ninth with a three-game lead on BC in the conference loss column. Nevertheless, it’s still an option for now. Seeds 1-4 get a double bye into the quarterfinals and seeds 10-15 need to win five games in five days to be crowned champion.
It’s probably a dream only possible in bizzaro world to think that BC could pull that run off given the way things have gone in 2023 - despite last year’s miraculous run in this tournament - but for now, playing in games down the stretch that mean something is extremely valuable to all of these young players. Grant has preached focusing on each day since every game in the ACC is a dogfight, but It’ll be interesting to see how this team handles an equally-as-hungry Florida State team on the road with the end for both squads now clearly in sight.
THREE KEYS TO BEATING FSU
1. Post, Post and more Post - The big man had arguably his worst night since returning in the loss to Pitt, which is why the Eagles need to get him going early and often on Saturday. If Post is dominating inside and also hitting shots from beyond the arc BC is as tough to beat as anybody. When he’s frustrated like he was against the Panthers, the offense goes stagnant (see the 0-13, seven-minute stretch). Post is slightly under the 50/40/90 line for the season, shooting 55.6% overall from the field, 42.1% from three and 86.7% on free throws, making him the only player nationally posting those percentages (min. 10.0 ppg). Through 14 games - all in ACC play - Post is averaging 16.1 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1.1 blocks per game and he’s one of 10 players nationally - and the only player in the ACC - to post those per game averages. Simply put, everything goes through him for this Eagles team.
2. Get M-A-L going - If Post is the 1A guy for BC, then Makai Ashton-Langford is 1B. Ashton-Langford also had a rough game against Pitt and could certainly use a bounce-back game against FSU. When Ashton-Langford is on alongside Post, it frees up guys like Jaeden Zackery or Mason Madsen or Prince Aligbe for easier buckets. The veteran is one of just seven players nationally to lead their team in assists, steals, and blocked shots. The Eagles have that one-two punch many teams would do anything to have, it’s just a matter of getting them both going and keeping them out of foul trouble at the same time.
3. Bench guys, particularly Madsen - Guys like Madsen, Chas Kelley III and TJ Bickerstaff have contributed to some wins, but it’s been Madsen who’s been the most consistent threat off the bench for the Eagles. BC may need bench guys on Saturday to quiet the FSU crowd whenever Post and M-A-L are off the floor. If it’s like last game when both were in serious foul trouble, then it’ll be early. Perhaps most importantly, he hasn’t really turned the ball over, something the entire team has struggled with in most losses this season. Madsen has committed just six turnovers in 322 minutes (16 games played). In his last eight games, Madsen’s assist/turnover ratio is 2.25:1 and his steal/turnover ratio is 2.50:1. Madsen has also connected on 14 of his 33 3-pointers on the season and over his last three games, he’s averaging 9.0 points and 4.7 rebounds while making nearly 40% of his three point attempts. If the Eagles are struggling to score again, he can be the guy to get them out of it and keep things close if necessary.