Boston College hasn’t had an eight-win season since 2009. Pro Football Focus projects the Eagles will just about get there in 2021.
PFF released its ACC preseason rankings Tuesday, nearly a week after putting out its 2021 ELO rankings for all 130 FBS teams (BC came it at No. 32).
PFF’s ACC projections were derived from 10,000 simulations of each team’s regular season schedule as well as a predictive model for how the conference championship and College Football Playoff will pan out. Once again, Clemson is the favorite. The rest of the ACC, however, is pretty interesting. Here’s how things shake out:
1. Clemson
→ 10.6 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 80%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 58%
2. North Carolina
→ 8.9 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 50%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 18%
3. Miami
→ 7.6 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 21%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 7%
4. BC
→ 7.9 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 10%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 4%
5. Pittsburgh
→ 7.5 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 10%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 3%
6. Virginia Tech
→ 7.5 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 11%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 3%
7. Virginia
→ 6.6 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 6%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 2%
8. Wake Forest
→ 6.9 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 5%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 2%
9. North Carolina State
→ 6.6 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 2%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 1%
10. Louisville
→ 6 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 2%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 1%
11. Duke
→ 5.3 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 2%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 0%
12. Florida State
→ 5.1 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 1%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 0%
13. Georgia Tech
→ 4 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 0%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 0%
14. Syracuse
→ 4.8 projected wins
→ ACC Championship appearance probability: 1%
→ ACC Championship win probability: 0%
BC has the third-highest projected win total and the fourth-highest conference championship win probability percentage in the ACC, according to PFF.
Of course, reaching the ACC title game—making what would be the Eagles’ first appearance since 2008—would mean getting past Clemson, which has won the last five Atlantic Division titles. Then again, BC staked itself to a 28-10 lead in Death Valley this past fall before letting its 18-point lead slip to the eventual ACC champions.
As far as the Atlantic Division goes, BC has the second-highest projected win total, per PFF. The next closest team is Wake Forest, a whole win below the Eagles, at 6.9.
BC hasn’t finished in the top three of the Atlantic standings since 2009, when the Eagles posted an 8-5 record, including a 5-3 mark in ACC play, in Frank Spaziani’s first year as head coach. That season, though, BC didn’t crack the AP Poll. The Eagles have made the Top 25 only one season in the last 12 years. And that was in 2018 when BC started the year 7-2.
Similar to that campaign, the Eagles will have a friendly non-conference slate to begin 2021. If BC performs like PFF projects, Jeff Hafley’s bunch will likely find itself in the AP Poll.
