First off, I had to use the mascot pic. I don't know what that thing is, but it's awesome.
Ok, now, it's a good ol' fashion noontime start on Saturday for Family Weekend against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
To me, this is a similar week to the Duquesne matchup where it's more about BC than the opponent if this is the team we think they are. However, this game probably won't be nearly as lopsided as that one. Since they don't have another Rivals site like previous opponents, I wasn't able to get their side of the story heading into this one, but here are my three keys and final prediction...
Run the ball
No need to get cute this weekend. Get back to what you do and don't let the blitz-happy Hilltoppers have any chance of getting pressure or forcing mistakes/turnovers. Yes, Bill O'Brien has often said that BC needs to put asses in seats by being an entertaining team, but you avoid 'trap games' by simply dominating at home. It doesn't matter how you dominate and BC's best chance to dominate anyone is when this offensive line is mean and getting after it, not sitting back and having to pass protect all day. Whether Kye plays or not, let Treshaun build on his big night. Let Turbo build on his first career touchdown. Let Datrell Jones show why he was arguably the standout player of training camp. Opponents have gained 707(!) yards on the ground against WKU already this season and they've only given up about 250 passing yards per game. They give up 176.8 YPG on the ground. This should be a 35-40 carry day for the backs.
Third down on both sides
I mean, we could literally say this every week, but at home you should be able to get off the field on D and stay on the field on offense. On offense, WKU is 19-50 (38%) on third down. Defensively, they've given up a little less than half of the opponent's opportunities (26-54, 48&), so they certainly struggle to get off the field as well. Simple formula here. Keep their defense on the field and get your defense off of it as soon as possible.
Red zone D needs to continue to be good
The biggest reason BC was able to beat Michigan State last weekend was holding them to three in big spots, something O'Brien talked about on Wednesday. BC's RZ D has been very good so far with just three FG's given up in 10 trips for opponents. The Hilltoppers have done a good job down there with 11 touchdowns in 18 trips. On the flip side, opponents have scored eight TD's in 15 trips when they get inside the 20. Again, this is a simple formula (seemingly) for a win on Saturday. Keep them out or hold them to three if they get in, and score touchdowns when the Eagles get into the red area. O'Brien has been stressing it to his team a lot this week and when you get into ACC play you're absolutely going to need seven more often than not. Not to mention we're still not entirely sure how good the kicking situation is even though Lombardo had a big field goal vs. MSU. Touchdowns, touchdowns, touchdowns.
BONUS KEY: Time of possession
Teams have held the ball for an average of 31:56 against the Hilltoppers while their offense had had it for 28:04 per game, This pretty much ties into the running the ball thing, but wear them down and get them gassed. By the time the fourth quarter rolls around, you should be in control and able to close the door without much resistance.
Final prediction: BC 31, WKU 13 - Close through the half, probably 17-7ish at the break I'm thinking. Noon start, O'Brien probably won't like the start he gets, lights into them at halftime (like he did vs. MSU) and it's a dominant performance in the second half. I won't be surprised one bit if we see a lot of Grayson James this game too. Get Tommy out of harms way as soon as possible and rested up. I'm very curious to see if the student section is full by 11:30 like O'Brien asked for as well. Hafley used to beg for it and it never happened. The other night was impressive as hell with just about everyone packed in there by 7:30, but Red Bandanna Night had a lot to do with that and that's a pretty big ask. If it' was me 15 years ago I'd just pull an all nighter, but I also get that things are very different around Chestnut Hill right now, so it could happen and I hope it does. As far as the game, I think there's just too much of a talent discrepancy here in my opinion. This is a team that had to come back against Toldeo. Again, this won't be the 56-0 Duquesne beat down, but BC wins comfortably in the end and we're on to ACC play.
