It's been a long 12 days for fans to stew over the Virginia loss.
But, there's finally a game on Thursday night and it's a huge one. The 4-2 Eagles and 3-3 Hokies have a chance to sort of go in opposite directions the rest of the way, depending on how this one plays out.
If this is going to be an eight-win Eagles team (at least), this feels like a must win game. It's also big for the mindset of the fan base heading into a primetime home game with Louisville next Friday night. A win this Thursday and Alumni should be buzzing. A loss, and many students may decide staying in the mods and partying is better than freezing out on the metal bleachers for a team headed for mediocrity or worse for the 15th straight year.
Here's what I believe are three important keys and a final prediction (spoiler: I'm not picking them for the first time this season)...
Replacing Jackson on defense
Biggest news of the week is obviously the season-ending ACL injury to Jackson. Huge blow for the BC defense as Jackson was their top guy and may be NFL-bound in a few years depending on how he bounces back. Going to need to get more out of Tucker, Williams, Farris, Brown, McShane and Martinez. Can't replace him with one guy, someone's going to need to step up or it's going to be by committee. V-Tech has the 9th ranked offense in the ACC (22 TD's, 9 FG's, 30.5 PPG (by comparison, BC is 12th with 23 TD's, 1 FG and 27.2 PPG). His loss also puts more pressure on linebackers to cover (still the biggest question on defense and not getting any better with O'Brien saying both Blackwell and Steele aren't coming back this season). That in turn puts more pressure on the guys up front to get to the QB faster. The Jackson ripple effect could be massive. Tim Lewis has his work cut out for him going forward.
Let Tommy be Tommy
Earlier in the week, TC said he "doesn't feel as dangerous' this season, addressing what all of us have been wondering while not really trying to. It's been clear since camp that this staff (understandably so given their offensive background) has tried to make him more of a pocket passer. It feels like that might not be the case as much going forward after a lot of self assessment after the bye. I'm expecting to see more of the scrambling and designed run Tommy coming out of the bye week and for the rest of the season. This staff knows the best version of Castellanos is as an instinctive guy and not so much a read through the progressions guy. Will he still sit back there a bit longer than normal trying to find one of these talented receivers? (they haven't been consistently getting open all season)...probably, but I think we start getting 2023 TC (running wise) starting this week.
O-Line must protect
If this staff does still want Tommy to sit back there and read the defense more, then this offensive line absolutely has to be on top of its game in a deafening Lane Stadium. Not an easy task. Ozzy Trapillo and TC (as well as O'Brien, brining up his times at Arrowhead Stadium and games at Penn State) talked about dealing with noise when it comes to protections. V-Tech has the most sacks in the ACC (20 in six games) and it could be a long night if TC has no time.
BONUS KEY - Run the damn ball & third down defense
Kye looked really good in the open practice we saw this week and I expect a bounce back game from him and the rest of the backs. For whatever reason in the two losses to Missouri and Virginia, the Eagles have abandoned the run almost entirely. With 12 days since acknowledging it (the run game) needed to be better, Robichaux, Ward, Turbo and maybe even Datrell Jones should get a ton of opportunities Thursday night. V-Tech is 15th in the ACC in run defense, giving up 1,025 yards and nine touchdowns so far on 238 total carries. That's 170.8 yards per game and 4.3 yards per cary. This should be a run heavy and throw when necessary game plan. The third down defense is a no brainer. BC's inability to get stops on 3rd-&10, 3rd-&-14 or really any other 3rd down scenario against Virginia was tough to watch. Simply have to get off the field on the road when you make the offense chase the chains.
BONUS KEY No. 2 - Early downs on offense
On defense BC can't keep giving up chunk runs on first and second down. On offense, play calling (and the run game) needs to be better early so the Eagles aren't looking at 3rd-&-8, 3rd-&-9 or 3rd-&-10 all the time.
Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, BC 24 - Hokies win on a late field goal, possibly in the final seconds. Offense looks good, but a few calls don't go the Eagles' way late, they settle for a FG to make it 24-24 and V-Tech has a game winning drive. Everyone's weekend is ruined before Friday
