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Published Oct 24, 2024
3 Keys & Final Prediction For Louisville Game
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Kevin Stone  •  EagleAction
Staff Writer
Twitter
@kstone06

I'm not sure I can handle covering another mediocre season.

After all the fun (sleepless week for me) that was the Bill O'Brien hire back in February, things have suddenly shifted into 'not again' mode when it comes to the 2024 season.

Losers of two straight and now an average 4-3 team, BC has another difficult task on its hands when Louisville visits for a primetime showdown on Friday at Alumni.

If Virginia Tech was a 'must-win' type of game, then this one could be season defining given the teams left on the schedule and what 4-4 looks and feels like compared to 5-3.

Here are 3 things (with a bonus one) that I think are critical for BC to have a shot in this one. And spoiler...no, I'm not picking them again...

1. No more turnovers

These are all going to be pretty obvious talking points this week, but it's back to basics for the Eagles right now. As O'Brien pointed out earlier in the week, BC has 13 takeaways and 12 turnovers. Tommy Castellanos especially needs to not turn the ball over with bad decisions and forced throws. Louisville's defense has two interceptions all season, can't just give it to them. O'Brien also said "it doesn't matter" when asked if the fumbles are mental or physical for the team. The Cardinals and Eagles are tied for 8th in the ACC with five forced fumbles. Louisville has recovered all five (BC has recovered four).

2. Pressure, pressure, pressure and don't get rolled on the ground again

With Amari Jackson out for the year and Kam Arnold missing at least this game (unless there was a miracle between Tuesday and Friday), it's going to be tough for this young linebacking core and still-learning secondary to fill those shoes. Tackling is going to be critical in the open field, especially after getting embarrassed on the ground by the Hokies. Okpala (or Hutchins, who played a lot more than Okpala did against V-Tech) and specifically Donovan Ezeirauku need to make life easier for the other two levels and get back to the elite pass rushing of the edges. The shorter amount of time guys need to cover right now, the better. Louisville has given up 13 sacks (BC has given up 19). Stopping the run better is obvious too after the 368-yard barrage last Thursday night. The Cardinals are 8th in the ACC with 161.3 rushing yards per game.

3. Gotta keep up offensively

Given the injuries mentioned above, it's hard to envision BC holding the Cardinals to anything under 24 at this point. Louisville is 5th in the ACC with 37.4 points per game with 34 touchdowns. Only Miami, Clemson, Pitt and SMU are averaging more points per game. The Eagles are 12th in scoring with just 26.3 PPG and 26 touchdowns. The one field goal made is the lowest in the league by far, with the next lowest being five for Syracuse. The Eagles have to score points in this game. Not just points, touchdowns. Probably at least four of them.

Bonus Key: Can special teams finally be special?

Look, if the offense is going to remain stuck in the mud, then at some point the special teams unit is going to have to flip fields for you or ideally, score a touchdown on the kickoff or on a punt. O'Brien pointed out that the return game has been a point of emphasis in practice, particularly blocking up gunners better. I'd love to see McGowan as the guy back there for both, but even if it's Cam Martinez or Ward, there's enough speedy options where the return game should be more of a factor. As far as punting, Ivan Zvenko seems to have stabilized the position a bit the last week or so and Liam Connor is fine(?) with the sample size we've seen. Still not sure what we're getting if a game-winning kick is on the line, but we'll cross that bridge when we get there.

Prediction: Louisville 41, BC 27 - I just think injuries on defense are too much to overcome right now. It's probably close early, but given how this team has performed before the half the last four weeks, the Cardinals get momentum heading into the locker room and cruise in the second half. Eagles start fast, but ultimately run out of gas.

I hope I'm wrong. There's going to be 30 recruits on hand and this program desperately needs positive momentum again heading into a tough final stretch of games, but the last two performances in Virginia severely shook my confidence.

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