Three years after an eight-win 2019 season that exceeded all expectations, Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield has found himself on the "Hot Seat" in 2022.
There was uncertainty whether he'd even get a fourth year on the job following back-to-back losing seasons, continued staff turnover and a 2022 recruiting class that—according to Rivals.com.—ranked 48th nationally, 17 spots lower than the previous year.
But, just before resigning, then-Louisville AD Vince Tyra announced that Satterfield would be back for 2022. Satterfield has rewarded the school with a great recruiting cycle. The Cardinals have stitched together a 2023 class that's 20th nationally and already boasts eight four-star prospects, double the total of last year's group.
Satterfield has yet to deliver the on-field results this fall that Cardinals fans are looking for, though. Louisville was smacked in the mouth during a 31-7, season-opening loss to Syracuse. Then the Cardinals had to gut out a comeback win over UCF before blowing a pair of of fourth quarter leads to Florida State the following week.
Louisville is coming off a 41-3 shellacking of USF, however, the Cardinals are 2-2 with a turnover problem that's been a theme of Satterfield's stay and a penalty count (8.8 per game) that's self-sabotaging.
Louisville has a whole lot of talent, but the Cardinals are often their own worst enemy.
WHEN IS BC PLAYING LOUISVILLE?
Saturday, Oct. 1, 12 p.m.
WHERE IS BC PLAYING LOUISVILLE?
Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts
SERIES HISTORY
Louisville leads the all-time series, 8-6. The Cardinals won their first three matchups with BC after joining the ACC, a stretch that culminated in a Lamar Jackson-led, 52-7 curve stomping in Alumni Stadium. Jackson totaled seven touchdowns in that game, and his day was over before the fourth quarter. BC, however, has won three of the last five meetings between the Atlantic Division foes. Last year, though, saw Louisville come away with a 28-14 victory in a rainy Cardinal Stadium. Louisville swarmed Eagles quarterback Dennis Grosel, and, although the Cardinals shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, they survived with a two-touchdown win. Cunningham threw two interceptions but rushed for 133 yards and a trio of scores.
BREAKING DOWN THE 2022 CARDINALS
Offense: BC head coach Jeff Hafley has made it clear the last few years just how much respect he has for Louisville's Malik Cunningham, who last week became the eighth quarterback in NCAA history to pass for more than 8,000 yards and rush for more than 3,000 yards in his career. Hafley believes Cunningham is one of the best signal callers in the ACC. The sixth year is a twitchy runner who makes Louisville's offense go. It's a unit that ranks 14th nationally in rushing yards per game. But Cunningham's also a better thrower of the football than people think. His 2:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season isn't indicative of his improved passing ability. While Cunningham doesn't have a true deep threat right now, he's 32-of-43 (74.4%) on passes 0-9 yards and 11-of-21 (52.4%) on passes 10-19 yards this season, per Pro Football Focus.
Louisville also has a collection of dynamic running backs, too. Tiyon Evans, Jawhar Jordan, Trevion Cooley and Jalen Mitchell all have runs of 20-plus yards this season. Evans, Jordan and Cooley have carried the ball 20-plus times and each have a yards per carry average of at least 4.7. They run behind a veteran offensive line that's led by redshirt junior center Bryan Hudson, who has registered a 67.7 PFF run blocking grade and an 82.0 PFF pass blocking grade this season.
Tight end Marshon Ford is once again one of Cunningham's favorite receivers. He has 10 grabs—the third most on the team—for 92 yards in 2022. Central Arkansas transfer Tyler Hudson leads the Cardinals with 18 catches and 262 receiving yards. Ahmari Huggins-Brace is another name to know. The sophomore started the season in a slot role but has lined up out wide for 67 snaps across the last three games, per PFF. Huggins-Brace has logged 13 receptions for 221 yards with a long of 55 this year.
Defense: Louisville defensive coordinator Bryan Brown's unit operates out of a 3-4 base. The Cardinals' front does a great job of infiltrating the backfield. Louisville entered the week ranked fourth nationally in non-blitz sack rate, according to ESPN. Not only are the Cards tied for 12th in the country with 13 sacks, they are also tied for 14th with 32 TFLs. That poses a matchup problem for a BC team that is tied for 128th in rushing offense (59.75 yards per game) and is tied for 125th in sacks allowed (15).
Louisville is led by the senior duo of defensive end YaYa Diaby and outside linebacker Yasir Abdullah, both of whom are probably going to be playing on Sundays for a while. They are tops on the team in pressures generated—Abdullah has 16, and Diaby has 14, per PFF—not to mention that they have combined for 5.5 sacks and 11 TFLs. On the other side of Diaby is fellow defensive end Ashton Gillotte, who has registered three sacks of his own this season.
Inside of Abdullah, the Cardinals feature seniors Monty Montgomery and Momo Sanogo. They have 18 and 21 total tackles in 2022, respectively. Outside linebacker Ben Perry actually has the most tackles (22) of any Louisville linebacker right now. Notably, Montgomery has a missed tackle rate of 32%, per PFF. No Cardinal has more missed tackles (13) than free safety Kenderick Duncan, who simultaneously leads the team with 28 total tackles. Duncan is quite active, partly because Brown likes to play a Cover 0 look where both safeties come down and partly because Louisville is tied for 62nd nationally with 53 plays of 10-plus yards allowed from scrimmage.
The Cardinals currently rank 30th in pass defense, conceding just 187 yards per game through the air—an average of 57.6 fewer passing yards than they gave up last year. Kei'Trel Clark came into the season as Louisville's top corner. He's had a so-so 2022, given that he's allowed 14 catches on 23 targets for an average of 10.1 yards per reception. And he's also given up two touchdowns, in addition to committing three penalties, per PFF. Still, he's a big part of a much-improved and experienced secondary that welcomed four transfers this offseason.
Special Teams: Like BC, Louisville has a different place kicker and kickoff specialist. Junior James Turner is the Cardinals' field goal kicker, and he's 5-of-6 this season. That said, Turner's long is just 36 this season, and his lone miss was from beyond 40 yards. Last year, he was a mere 14-of-22 on field goals, although he did convert 6-of-10 attempts from 40-49, so he does have the distance in him. Brock Travelstead is the Cardinals' kickoff specialist. He's averaging 63 yards per boot, and his touchback percentage of 76.19% is tied for 16th in the FBS. Punter Mark Vassett is one of the best in the ACC. The sophomore is fourth in the league with a 46.3 yard punt average. His seven punts inside the 20 are tied for third most in the ACC, and he has zero touchbacks so far this season. Jawhar Jordan has been running back kicks, and wide receiver Braden Smith has been returning punts, however, neither has done anything in that department that's to write home about, at least at this point.
NUMBERS TO KNOW
8 — turnovers Louisville has committed this season, the second most in the ACC.
25 — plays of 20-plus yards from scrimmage the Cardinals have posted this season, a mark that is tied for 22nd in the FBS.
10 — 100-yard rushing games in Malik Cunningham's career.
ESPN FPI
The database gives Louisville a 75.1% chance of beating BC in Week 5.
OUTLOOK
BC needs a win before Clemson comes to town. Badly. Otherwise, there's a very real scenario where the Eagles enter the bye week 1-5, including 0-4 in ACC play. The Eagles will have a shot against a mistake-prone Louisville team at home, but only if they get off to a fast start and shore up their issues on special teams and defense.
Until BC's offense shows that it can be remotely efficient, the margin of error in the other two phases is razor thin. That means the Eagles must be in tip-top tackling form against Cunningham, who has piled up 309 yards and four touchdowns on the ground in his last three games against BC.
Louisville is a two-score favorite for a reason. The Eagles have a lot to prove.