After a two-game road trip that resulted in two straight losses, Boston College (13-8, 3-5) returns to Conte Forum to take on Virginia Tech (15-6, 4-4) Wednesday at 9 PM.

At 3-5 in ACC play and losers of three of their last four conference games, BC needs to have a solid homestand this week if they realistically want any chance at making the NCAA Tournament. Hosting Virginia Tech Wednesday night and Georgia Tech Sunday afternoon, two wins would put BC back at 5-5 in ACC play with eight games to play. After this week, BC has just three home games remaining: February 10th vs. Miami, February 17th vs. Notre Dame, and February 28th vs. Syracuse. Those are all tough games, so BC’s best chance to pick up some “easier” home wins comes this week.

Sitting 3-1 at home in ACC play and 11-1 at home on the entire year, BC has done a solid job of protecting their home floor and making Conte Forum a tough place to play--especially when students have actually shown up to games. But with a 9 PM start time against Virginia Tech, expect attendance to be lower than average--weakening the Eagles’ home court advantage.

To make matters worse, BC freshman forward Steffon Mitchell, who leads the team in both defensive rating and overall box plus/minus, suffered a brutal elbow to the face in the loss at Syracuse and had to leave the game with concussion-like symptoms. We don’t have any further information and likely won’t know if Mitchell is playing until right before the game starts. With concussions, though, recovery times can be very unpredictable so even a week may not be enough time to clear the protocol. As of Monday, Mitchell was “progressing well” but still needed to pass the necessary tests to be cleared.

Obviously, if Mitchell isn’t able to play that would be a huge blow for BC. Luka Kraljevic would likely start in his place, but Luka isn’t nearly as versatile on defense as Mitchell is, meaning BC could really struggle to stop the Hokies.

Hopefully Mitchell is able to suit up, but if he’s not, BC’s chances of winning would take a major hit.

With that in mind, we’ll do our best to preview the game below, but Mitchell’s availability will have a major impact on this one.

Check out our preview of the game below!

At 15-6 on the year and 4-4 in ACC play, Buzz Williams and the Hokies have been one of the hottest offenses in the NCAA this season, but also one of the worst defenses.

Scoring 85.1 points per game--14th best in the nation--including 132 and 111 points against Citadel and Detroit, the Hokie offense hasn’t seemed to take much of step back after losing its top three scorers from last season and losing senior Ty Outlaw to an ACL injury just before the start of this year.

With all five starters averaging between 10 and 15.8 points per game in ACC play, the Hokies have a versatile offense based on attacking the basket and getting efficient shots. As a result, the Hokies have the 3rd highest field goal % in the nation this season, making 52% of all shots and shooting 59.2% from inside the arc. In ACC play, those numbers drop down a bit, but they’re still 2nd in the conference in FG% and 2FG% at 47.4% and 56.1%, respectively.

Unfortunately for BC, stopping the Hokies isn’t as easy as just stopping one guy, as all five Virginia Tech starters are taking between 8 and 11 shots a game. Likewise, all five starters are capable three-point shooters--even 6’10” starting center Kerry Blackshear Jr. is 9-18 from deep in ACC play.

But having such versatile scoring is also a bit of a two-edged sword, as there isn’t one guy that Buzz Williams can rely on to carry this squad offensively. As a result, Virginia Tech really struggles against teams with solid defensive foundations. In their first two ACC games against Syracuse and Virginia--teams with strong defensive pedigrees--Virginia Tech scored just 56 and 52 points, shooting a combined 35-99 from the field and 12-42 from deep.

After the rough start to conference play, Virginia Tech has hit 80+ points in their last six games, going 4-2 in the process including a thunderous win at home vs. UNC (highlights below).

Moreover, the Hokies like to take a lot of threes. Taking 40% of their total shots from behind the arc, Virginia Tech surpasses even BC (39.5%) and in ACC play, the Hokies are taking a ridiculous 24.9 threes per game. Shooting a very high 40.6% from deep this season, the Hokies are 7-0 when hitting 11+ threes.

In terms of individual players, Justin Robinson (6’1”), Justin Bibbs (6’5”), Ahmed Hill (6’5”), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (6’5”), and Kerry Blackshear Jr. (6’10”) are as solid and experienced as any team in the conference--at least offensively. First and foremost, all five of these guys are capable scorers and are very athletic, things BC has not handled well this season. If Mitchell isn’t able to start, it could be a long day for Chatman and Luka on the wing.

Robinson, a junior out of Manassas, VA, leads the team in scoring in ACC play at 15.8 ppg on 41% shooting from deep. Robinson also leads the Hokies in win shares this season.

Bibbs, the lone senior in the rotation, is averaging 34 minutes a game and scoring 11.8 points per game on 36.4% shooting from deep.

Meanwhile Ahmed Hill is shooting 47.1% from three on the season--good for 3rd in the ACC--and has hit 57 total threes--tied for first with UVA’s Kyle Guy.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker, the 39th ranked recruit in the 2017 class, is the only freshman in the starting lineup and has the lowest offensive rating of the starting five. Despite a solid non-conference showing, Nickeil has gotten off to a rough start in ACC play, shooting just 13-45 from deep and is taking over 60% of his shots from beyond the arc--not an ideal combination.

Rounding out the starting five for the Hokies is junior Kerry Blackshear Jr., who is grabbing 2.1 offensive boards per game and shooting 50% from deep.

Very athletic for 6’10”, Blackshear is the best defender on the team and has a robust offensive game that could provide some issues for BC--especially if Mitchell isn’t able to suit up. Blackshear Jr. dropped a career-high 31 points just a few weeks ago against Pitt, finishing 12-16 from the field and 2-3 from downtown.

But as good as Virginia Tech has been on offense this season, the defensive end of the floor has not been their strong suit. Allowing 77.1 points per game in ACC play thus far, the Hokies are allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the field (14th in the ACC) and an insane 42.3% from deep. The poor three-point numbers could be due to some bad luck, but Louisville (13-23), Notre Dame (12-29), Pitt (12-26), and Virginia (12-25) all shot nearly 50% from deep against the Hokies and BC could look to do the same.

Luckily for BC, Ky Bowman (35.3%), Jerome Robinson (50.8%), and Jordan Chatman (50.7%) have all shot the long ball very well at home this season, and if the Hokies can’t find a way to contest shots, BC could find a lot of success from beyond the arc.

Moreover, Virginia Tech is last in the ACC in offensive rebounds per game at just 6.9 and they’re giving up a startling 13 a game. BC, meanwhile, is a top-6 team in the conference in total rebounds per game, and if Steffon Mitchell is able to play, the Eagles will have the advantage on the boards.

I hate to predicate my prediction on whether Mitchell is playing, but the reality is that he may be the single most important player on this BC team. Statistically, Mitchell is the most effective defender on this BC team--the team is +4.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor--and he’s a top-5 player in the entire nation in on/off rating.

Luka Kraljevic has been a decent player at times this season, but statistically the drop off from Mitchell to him is about 10 points per 100 possessions. Moreover, if Mitchell can’t play, BC will be left with key subs of JCR and Vin Baker Jr. In a game like this, JCR would struggle mightily with the athleticism of Kerry Blackshear Jr. and Vin Baker Jr. struggles guarding anyone.

If Mitchell is able to play, I’d say BC has more than enough weapons on both sides of the floor to win this game. Jerome Robinson, Jordan Chatman, and Ky Bowman have all played their best basketball at home this season and the team as a whole seems to perform much better defensively in Conte. Just two weeks ago, BC blasted Florida State at home and played their best defensive game of the season. That Florida State team, much like Virginia Tech, was a solid offensive team that struggled both defensively and on the glass and Coach Christian gameplanned very well to mitigate their strengths. Buzz Williams, however, is a much better in-game coach than FSU’s Leonard Hamilton, so expect Virginia Tech to be well-prepared in this one.

As always, though, BC will have a big advantage simply because they have the best player on the floor in Jerome Robinson. I say it before every game, but with Ky, Jerome, and Jordan all on the team, BC could explode for 90+ points without notice. But either way, this will be a tough game that BC needs to win if they want to stay in the bubble hunt.

Be ready to stay up late.

Go Eags!