Published Dec 27, 2023
Staff Predictions - Wasabi Fenway Bowl
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Kevin Stone  •  EagleAction
Staff Writer
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@kstone06

After a long wait, the 2023 BC football season finally ends on Thursday morning at Fenway Park in the Wasabi Fenway Bowl.The Eagles (6-6) are a double-digit underdog to future ACC opponent SMU (11-2). It's supposed to be ugly weather wise which could slow down the Mustangs, but it's still a talk task for the Eagles to get that seventh win. Justin and I give our thoughts on how things might go for one final time this year...

What are the main reasons for BC fans to be optimistic about this game?

Justin Rowland: SMU has only faced one ranked opponent this season and they lost that game 28-11. They've faced only two major conference opponents this year and they have lost both of those games; both by 17 points. Oklahoma and TCU both approached 200 yards on the ground. Those were SMU's two worst rush defense performances of the season. That's a good way of illustrating that you have to control for strength of schedule. BC has more talent than most of the teams the Mustangs have faced this year.

Kevin Stone: Home field advantage and the weather. BC is obviously a run-first team and a rainy day with a slow grass field opens the doors for a clock-killing style of offense while (hopefully) slowing down SMU. When BC was at its best this year it was arguably the best running team in the country and dominated time of possession. That's exactly what needs to happen on Thursday with the Robichaux and Castellanos leading the way. There's also the whole being in Boston thing. I can't imagine many SMU fans were all that interested in traveling up here for an 11 AM game, so whatever crowd is there (I'm thinking 25-30K max) it'll be mostly all Eagles fans.

What are the main reasons for BC fans to be concerned?

Rowland: SMU averages 40.6 points per game and only gives up 17.4. They've been a pretty dominant team in that respect. They've only lost twice. Their only two losses were in the first month of the season, one at Oklahoma and both on the road. Nine straight wins indicate this is a very confident team playing at a high level. Compare BC's three straight losses and being outscored on the season and it doesn't look like the very best matchup on paper.

Stone: Long time off and SMU's offense. If the weather isn't that bad this defense might have a tough time slowing down the Mustangs. I'm also worried about the long lay off. Sure, the time off and extra practices are nice, but two weeks without game reps screams slow start and for a team that perpetually starts slow, it may take even longer to get going. Hopefully if the Eagles win the toss they take the ball first for that reason. I'll also be interested to see how SMU looks as a road team with a before-noon kick off because the slow start after a long time off thing may effect them as well.

What's your pick for the game and who will be BC's MVP?

Rowland: SMU is a 10-point favorite in Vegas and it's typically not wise to pick the underdog in games with a spread like that. It wouldn't be a total shock if BC pulled it off, but the Mustangs are the decided favorite. Kye Robichaux has rushing totals of 165, 112, 70, and 118 yards in four of BC's final five games.

Stone: I think BC keeps it close for a half but SMU finds a way to pull away in the fourth. Taking the Mustangs 31-17ish. I'm just not sure the Eagles offense can score enough to keep up with the Mustangs. If BC does win, give me Robichaux for MVP with over 150 yards on 20+ carries. He may have that anyways even in a loss.