Boston College vs. #25 Clemson: Preview / Predictions

After a heartbreaking loss at Virginia, who moved up to #8 in the latest AP rankings, the BC men’s basketball team returns to Conte Forum for a two game stint against Clemson and Wake Forest. With a few days to regather themselves after a painful road loss, BC has another tough game Wednesday night as the newly-ranked Clemson Tigers comes to town. After crushing NC State in their ACC opener, Clemson made their first appearance in the AP rankings since 2010, coming in at #25.

Luckily, BC doesn’t shy away from playing ranked opponents, so expect the Eagles to come out hungry for victory and get back to above .500 in ACC play. At 1-1 in the ACC, BC can’t afford a winless homestand, and while Clemson is a tougher opponent than Wake Forest, if the Eagles are serious about being a solid ACC team, they need to play well in a game like this.

BC currently has a 37.7% chance to win this game according to the ESPN Power Index, but what to we think about the game?

Check out our preview below!

At 12-1, Brad Brownell’s Tigers are out to one of their best starts ever. With notable wins over Ohio, Texas Southern, Ohio State, Florida, South Carolina, and NC State, Clemson has earned their Top-25 ranking.

Starting five upperclassmen, Clemson is an experienced, athletic squad that is built upon defense and physicality--things BC has struggled with this season. With all their starters between 6’3” and 6’9”, Clemson features an extremely switchable and versatile lineup, allowing them to adjust to almost any playing style and run any defensive scheme. As a result, Clemson is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, only giving up 62 points per game (21st) and holding their opponents to just 39% shooting from the field (34th).

In BC’s game against UVA, defensive-specialist Isaiah Wilkins had a field day against BC, finishing the game with 4 blocks and 14 rebounds. BC struggled mightily with Wilkins’ physicality, and unfortunately, Clemson’s Elijah Thomas brings much of the same to this game. At 6’9”, Thomas is the heart of Clemson’s defense--a switchable big who is an athletic monster--and he’s one of just 3 players in the country with a block rate of above 11% and a defensive rebounding rate above 27%. In plain English: even though he’s just 6’9”, Thomas is one of the best shot blockers and rebounders in the nation.

And since they switch almost anything, Clemson does a very good job of guarding ball-screens and stepping in front of shooters. Every player on this Clemson team can defend the perimeter and they do a great job of contesting three’s, where opponents are shooting just 33%.

Offensively, all five Clemson starters are averaging between 11 and 15 points a game, with junior guard Marcquise Reed leading the way at 15.2 ppg. Interestingly, no one on Clemson is taking more than 10 shots a game. For reference, Jerome Robinson and Ky Bowman are at 12.8 and 14.1 attempts, respectively. At 6’3”, Marcquise Reed is taking nearly half of his shots from deep, but he’s hitting a very solid 38% of them. He has also done a nice job of getting to the line as each of his field goal attempts is producing .477 free throws (way higher than Jerome or Ky). Reed’s backcourt mate, senior Gabe DeVoe, is also shooting very efficiently this season, hitting 39% of his shots from deep on 5 attempts for game. If anyone on Clemson is going to explode for a career-night ala-Ty Jerome for UVA, I’d bet on it being DeVoe.

The way I’ve been writing about Clemson, it sounds like they’re are an amazing team and BC has no chance. And while Clemson is certainly a very good team with some very clear strengths, BC still has some meaningful advantages in this game.

Firstly, since Clemson has such well-rounded scoring, they don’t have any one player they can rely on for volume scoring. As a result, their isn’t that go-to-guy to drag them out of a slow stretch. Against Temple, this lack of an alpha dog was extremely clear, as Clemson's starters finished a combined 20-48 from the field, leading to only 60 points on the day. Since Clemson is constantly relying on all of their starters to shoot well in order to win, getting a lackluster performance from one or two of them can drastically affect them.

BC, on the other hand, is almost the exact opposite of Clemson, with Jerome Robinson, Ky Bowman, and Jordan Chatman scoring nearly all of the teams' points. Obviously, this is a double-edged sword--while BC has a much higher ceiling with such focused scoring, they're also extremely reliant on just a few players to remain in games--however, with the way Jordan Chatman and Jerome Robinson have been playing as of late, I'll give the advantage to BC.

Also, aside from Elijah Thomas, Clemson is far from an elite rebounding squad. Not counting games against Western Carolina and NC A&T, Clemson is averaging under 8 offensive rebound per game, and NC State, Florida, and South Carolina all finished with 10+ offensive boards against the Tigers. BC, meanwhile is averaging nearly 13 offensive rebounds per game, so Steffon Mitchell and Nik Popovic should be primed for another productive night on the glass.

Lastly, Clemson has only played one road game this season, taking down Ohio State in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and this is only their second game of the season outside of the South. Boston is extremely cold right now, so hopefully the Tigers come into this game feeling out of their element.

This game is a tough call. On paper, Clemson is a more experienced and deeper team than BC. Clemson is ranked 25th for a reason and they certainly won’t go down easily. They’ve taken down Florida, South Carolina, and Ohio State this year, so they won’t be intimidated by the Eagles. That being said, BC has played its best basketball at home this season, and with the way Jordan Chatman and Jerome Robinson have been playing lately, BC has potential for an offensive explosion any night.

If BC can get at least an average game from Ky Bowman, I believe they’ll have the two best players on the floor in him and Jerome Robinson. Obviously, another terrible Ky performance would dramatically hurt BC’s chances of winning this game, but if he, Robinson, and Chatman can all click at once, BC will have the upper hand.

However, BC has struggled mightily against switchable, wing-heavy teams like Texas Tech, Nebraska, and Providence, and I fear Clemson may provide many of the same issues. Clemson is experienced, extremely athletic, and they’re not afraid to run the floor all night.

So to be completely honest, I don’t know what to expect in this game. Both teams have their advantages, and while Clemson is probably a more complete package, BC has proven they can play extremely well against solid opponents. More than anything, I would consider this game to be a litmus test for the rest of the season. The first two ACC games have been extremely tough for BC, and while they’re 1-1, it’s hard to say how they will fare against the other middling-ACC teams.

In this Clemson game, we will get our first real look at this BC team as something other than a huge underdog. If BC is serious about being an above-average ACC team, they must consider this a winnable home game.