Opponent Preview: Louisville

Scott Satterfield pumped life back into a deflated 2-10 Louisville program last year. His success at Appalachian State immediately translated to the ACC, as he guided the Cardinals to an 8-5 record. The six-win improvement was the largest of any Power Five team in 2019.

After transforming a pedestrian offense that struggled to eclipse the 20-point mark on a weekly basis into the 43rd-best scoring offense in the nation, Satterfield became the first Louisville head coach to ever win ACC Coach of the Year. With a dynamic QB-RB duo and a defense returning most of its playmakers, Louisville quickly emerged as a trendy ACC title contender in 2020.

The engine fell off the tracks on Oct. 9 when the Cardinals stomached a 19-point loss to a 1-2 Georgia Tech team. To that point, it was a slow decline. Following its season-opening win over Western Kentucky, Louisville climbed to 18th in the AP Poll. But a 13-point loss to No. 17 Miami and a three-point defeat to No. 21 Pittsburgh dropped Louisville out of the rankings. The Cardinals haven’t sniffed the AP Top 25 since. First-year hiccups have kicked in a season late—factor in opt-outs and, most recently, rumors about Satterfield interviewing for the South Carolina opening (which he shot down), and you have the perfect storm for a down year.

When is BC playing?

Saturday, Nov. 28, 4 p.m.

Where is BC playing?

Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, Mass.

How to watch?

This game will be broadcast on ACC Network.

Series History

Louisville leads the all-time series, 7-5, but the programs have split their last four meetings. The Cardinals’ last win at Alumni Stadium came in 2016 when Lamar Jackson piled up seven total touchdowns (four passing, three rushing) in three quarters en route to a 52-7 victory. The subsequent year, thanks to AJ Dillon’s four-touchdown coming out party, BC avenged the blowout loss with a thrilling 45-42 win on the road. In 2018, BC shut down a reeling Cardinals team at home while riding 100-yard games by David Bailey and Ben Glines to a 38-20 victory. Last year’s matchup saw Anthony Brown suffer the second season-ending ACL tear of his career. Former walk-on Dennis Grosel took over under center and threw a trio of touchdown passes, but Louisville got the last laugh, winning the shootout, 41-39.

Louisville’s record: 3-6 (2-6 ACC)

Breaking Down the Cardinals:

Offense: When Satterfield arrived at Louisville, he steered away from Bobby Petrino’s offensive scheme and instead rolled out a multidimensional rushing attack. Javian Hawkins was arguably the Cardinals’ biggest beneficiary. As a redshirt freshman, he racked up 1,525 yards on the ground. He was on track to put up monstrous numbers this year, too—he logged 949 scrimmage yards in seven games this fall before opting out for the 2021 NFL Draft. Without him, Louisville’s 39th-ranked rushing offense (194.1 yards per game) has adopted a running back-by-committee approach. Last week against Syracuse, Hassan Hall, Maurice Burkley, and Jalen Mitchell (a 221-pound redshirt freshman) split the workload pretty evenly.

Quarterback Malik Cunningham is dangerous on the ground as well. The redshirt junior has rushed for 438 yards and six touchdowns this season. Two weeks ago at Virginia, he carried the ball 20 times for 197 yards and two scores. He can boot off several of the Cardinals’ outside zone play designs, and he’s more than capable of pushing the ball downfield through the air. Despite being haunted by turnovers (he’s thrown 11 picks this year), he’s completed 63.7% of his passes this fall while throwing for 16 scores. Tutu Atwell, who leads the team with 41 catches and six receiving touchdowns, is his No. 1 target. Dez Fitzpatrick, however, tops the receiving leaderboard with 574 yards, averaging 19.8 yards per catch. It’s also worth noting that tight end Marshon Ford (21 receptions, five touchdowns) is a legit red zone threat.

Defense: Louisville’s defense has taken a big step forward in 2020 after rounding out the previous two seasons 99th and 100th in SP+. Following the Cardinals’ 30-0 shutout win over Syracuse, defensive coordinator Bryan Brown’s unit graded out with the 71st-best SP+ rating in the FBS, nine games into the season, a significant improvement from last year. The offense hasn’t done the group any favors, though. In fact, Louisville has committed the second-most turnovers (21) in the country. But the Cardinals still rank 46th nationally in scoring defense, allowing 26.4 points per game. All in all, they concede 363.8 yards per game, the fourth-fewest of any ACC team this season.

Louisville is particularly strong against the pass. Led by CBs Kei’Trel Clark (seven passes defended, one interception) and Marlon Character (two passes defended, one interception), the Cardinals have given up just 178.9 yards through the air per game, good for eighth in the nation. Louisville also has some studs at the second level. C.J. Avery and Rodjay Burns are one and two on the team in both solo and total tackles, respectively. The Cardinals’ LBs have accounted for 14 of Louisville’s 20 sacks this year. That’s partially because the Cardinals are weak up front. Louisville lost its two best D-Linemen last year, and, while Jared Goldwire is a nice piece, the position group has struggled to create penetration. As a result, the Cardinals rank just 87th in rushing defense and have given up 65 runs of 10+ yards this year, the third most in the FBS.

Three Storylines:

Will BC feast on a turnover-prone Louisville team?

Although explosive, the Cardinals’ offense is anything but mistake free. Louisville has been riddled by turnovers all season. Meanwhile, the Eagles have posted the third-most takeaways in 2020. Not only that, but they’ve forced nine of their 17 turnovers in their last four games. The only team to cough up the ball more than Louisville this year is Duke. BC came up with five takeaways in its season-opening win over the Blue Devils.

Can the Eagles contain Malik Cunningham?

BC has allowed quarterbacks to rush for an average of 61.8 yards over the past five games. Mobile signal callers have given the Eagles’ D-Line and linebackers fits. Cunningham could very well do the same on Saturday. Jeff Hafley said this week that BC will have to throw different looks at the dual-threat gunslinger. The first-year Eagles coach wants Cunningham to have to make decisions in the pocket but admitted that it’s easier said than done.

Who will come out on top, Phil Jurkovec or the Cardinals’ pass defense?

Phil Jurkovec has thrown for the second-most yards of any ACC quarterback this season and is healthy after a bye week of rest. He’ll be tested by a Louisville secondary that’s only allowed two opponents to pass for more than 250 yards in 2020. Jurkovec has accounted for most of the Eagles’ offense this fall. Unless BC gets the run game going, the outcome could hinge on the redshirt sophomore’s performance.

Line: BC (-1)

ESPN FPI: The database gives BC a 52.3% chance of beating the Cardinals.

Outlook: Louisville’s 3-6 record is a bit deceiving. Five of the Cardinals’ six losses have been decided by two or fewer scores, and Satterfield’s team has remained potent on offense while making strides on the other side of the ball. Turnovers have plagued Louisville this year. If that continues to be the case on Saturday, BC will be primed for its sixth win of the season. That said, a clean game by Cunningham could result in another down-to-the-wire contest in Alumni Stadium, the final home game of the Eagles’ 2020 campaign.