How Does Recent Big Ten Expansion Affect BC?
Starting in 2024, the Big Ten will include 16 schools—and, at this point, it seems like that number will be even higher by then.
USC and UCLA officially made the blindsiding announcement Thursday that the Southern California schools will be joining the Midwestern-clad Big Ten in two years. Except, the move had been in the works for months. The news comes just over a year after Texas and Oklahoma announced their departure from the Big 12 to the SEC, eyeing 2024 as the transition year.
Money is king in college athletics. And football is the five-star general calling the shots.
USC and UCLA are expected to make approximately $80 million annually in the Big Ten. A big reason why is the new lucrative television contracts the Big Ten is currently negotiating that could generate a sum of about $1 billion, according to The Washington Post.
Each Pac-12 school received only $19.8 million from the conference in fiscal year 2021, according to the Post, in comparison to the $46.1 million each Big Ten school pulled in.
That disparity is expected to continue to increase as the “superconferences” keep stacking powers. The SEC, of course, is the other juggernaut. It’s in the lead. A year in which it boasted the national champion and the national runner-up, the SEC distributed $54.6 million to each of its members.
USC and UCLA can leave the Pac-12 without financial penalty because the conference’s grant-of-rights agreement expires after the 2022-23 academic year. That deal is tied to the Pac-12’s current TV deal, meaning that if a member were to leave before the grant-of-rights agreement expired, the Pac-12 would get the media-rights money of any departing school.
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE ACC?
Well, that’s the problem ACC members face. The league entered a restrictive TV contract with ESPN in 2019 that runs through 2036 and already hasn’t aged well. The conference reels in roughly $240 million per year, which pales in comparison to the SEC and Big Ten contracts.
Unlike the Pac-12 deal, this one runs well through the 2030s. But, like the Pac-12, the ACC’s deal is tied to the league’s grant-of-rights agreement. And if a member wants to leave, it has to pay a pricey exit fee that, according to CBS Sports, would be more than $50 million a pop—otherwise the departing schools would have to give up their new media-rights revenue to the ACC.
SO WHERE DOES NOTRE DAME COME INTO PLAY?
Notre Dame is famous for being independent, in football that is. Two seasons ago, the Fighting Irish joined the ACC for the COVID-19-affected, conference-heavy slate. They made the league title game and the College Football Playoff that year but returned to independence in 2021. Because Notre Dame is a member of the ACC in all sports except football and ice hockey—and it has been since 2013—the Irish football program plays five ACC opponents every season.
So Notre Dame is tied to the ACC more than any other conference. But, with Thursday’s news, that could very well change. The thing is, the Irish still have quite a bit of leverage. As long as Notre Dame still has a path to the National Championship, there is no rush. The Big Ten or SEC would gladly take the Irish at any time. The Big Ten is the more likely landing spot for Notre Dame, though.
First of all, it would allow the Irish to maintain their national brand. They’d be able to play on the West Coast (USC, UCLA), East Coast (Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State) and, of course, in the Midwest (most of the Big Ten), where Notre Dame is located anyway. The Irish would be right at home considering that they have faced Purdue 87 times, Michigan State 79 times, Northwestern 49 times and Michigan 44 times.
Additionally, a move to the Big Ten would ensure that Notre Dame doesn’t fall behind in revenue. Right now, the Irish have a contract with NBC that draws $15 million per year and expires in 2025. It’s also part of the ACC grant-of-rights agreement that’s linked to the league’s ESPN contract, which runs through 2036. That said, swallowing the pill that is a potential exit fee from the ACC would be more manageable for Notre Dame, given that the school would really only be taking a hit for non-football television revenue.
WHY DOES NOTRE DAME'S DECISION MATTER?
Well, because Notre Dame is the addition that could save the ACC as we know it. If the Irish become a full-time member of the ACC, the league might just survive as a smaller yet still relevant conference in a college football world piloted by the SEC and the Big Ten. Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame—plus a resurgent Miami—could keep the ACC in the ring.
On the other hand, if Notre Dame stubbornly holds onto its FBS independence or moves to the Big Ten, the ACC will be at risk of losing power and, eventually, its most-prized members.
If that happens, will BC have a seat at the table in the SEC or Big Ten? It depends on how big those leagues become. As a smaller private university that hasn’t had an eight-plus-win football season since 2009 or a NCAA Tournament appearance in men’s basketball since 2008-09, it would have a tough time pitching itself to those conferences right now.
BC’s academic prestige and location—being one the few Power Five schools in the Northeast—could pull some weight, however, that’s no guarantee to push the needle. All isn’t lost for BC, though. It just takes a strong couple of years for the narrative to change. If Jeff Hafley’s recruiting success translates to a ranked football team, Earl Grant’s rebuild results in an NCAA Tournament appearance and Greg Brown’s retooling of BC men’s hockey goes according to plan over the next few years, maybe the Eagles can find themselves in a crowded Big Ten.
Right now, it’s anyone’s best guess. Regardless, the pressure is on to build a resume.